Pacific FC 1-0 Atlético Ottawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atlético Ottawa at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Atlético Ottawa travel to Starlight Stadium to take on Pacific FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 August 2022, 22:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pacific FC stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacific FC's home record at Starlight Stadium: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Canadian Premier League appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Atlético Ottawa have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Atlético Ottawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atlético Ottawa's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pacific FC 1.50 PPG, Atlético Ottawa 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Pacific FC in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games).
Atlético Ottawa in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 61% versus Atlético Ottawa 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 67% | Atlético Ottawa 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.10 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 1.190 / defence 1.096 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.074 / defence 0.669. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.321. Atlético Ottawa's defence strength of 0.669 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 46 Pacific FC games / 46 Atlético Ottawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 27% | Draw 25% | Atlético Ottawa 48%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Atlético Ottawa 2.08. Atlético Ottawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atlético Ottawa at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atlético Ottawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pacific FC 70% | Atlético Ottawa 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 27% | Draw 25% | Atlético Ottawa 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Pacific FC 1.10 / Atlético Ottawa 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 1.190 / def 1.096 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.074 / def 0.669 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Atlético Ottawa xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa kick off?
Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa kicked off at 22:00 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Pacific FC 1 - 0 Atlético Ottawa.
Where is Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa part of?
Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 27% chance of winning, Atlético Ottawa a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pacific FC's attack rating (1.19) and Atlético Ottawa's defence rating (0.67), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Atlético Ottawa's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
27%
3.72
25%
3.95
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
2.65
1.55
Atlético Ottawa xG
3.72
27%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
21%
4.73
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
6%
17.60
16%
6.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.9 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.55 for Atlético Ottawa, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pacific FC come into this having played 46 games, going 23W 10D 13L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atlético Ottawa sit at 1.26 PPG from 46 outings (15W 13D 18L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Atlético Ottawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pacific FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Atlético Ottawa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Pacific FC's home form reads 13W 5D 4L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Atlético Ottawa have taken 1.32 points per game from 22 outings (8W 5D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pacific FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pacific FC are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Atlético Ottawa are on 1.11 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pacific FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Blended
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 23W 10D 13L in their last 46 games (1.72 PPG), while Atlético Ottawa have gone 15W 13D 18L in their last 46 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or Atlético Ottawa away?
Pacific FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Atlético Ottawa away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2024, when Atlético Ottawa won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pacific FC's record when hosting Atlético Ottawa specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Pacific FC
2
Draws
7
Atlético Ottawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 1, Atlético Ottawa have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Atlético Ottawa 3-2 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Atlético Ottawa see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 77%, Atlético Ottawa 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Pacific FC and 36% for Atlético Ottawa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / Atlético Ottawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play Atlético Ottawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Pacific FC's games and 46% of Atlético Ottawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Pacific FC's matches and 36% of Atlético Ottawa's.
Do Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Atlético Ottawa in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pacific FC defy the odds to beat Atlético Ottawa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC beat Atlético Ottawa 1-0 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.10 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.55 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Atlético Ottawa landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 1.19 / defence 1.10 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.07 / defence 0.67, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 27% | Draw 25% | Atlético Ottawa 48%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Pacific FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 67%, Atlético Ottawa 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Pacific FC arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.26. That form edge translated into the three points. Pacific FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.