Forge vs York United – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Forge (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Forge face York United.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Group Stage sees York United travel to Tim Hortons Field to take on Forge. The game is scheduled for Monday 12 October 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Forge have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Forge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Forge at Tim Hortons Field this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tim Hortons Field. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, York United stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
York United away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Forge carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Forge: 7 wins from 10 previous clashes against 0 for York United, with 3 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Jul 2026, ended 3–1 with Forge winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Forge and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Forge trading profile (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
York United trading profile (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forge 51% versus York United 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forge 47% | York United 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.83 xG and York United 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.014 / defence 0.977 | York United attack 0.986 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.811 / away 1.267. Data: 28 Forge games / 28 York United games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Forge 50% | Draw 26% | York United 24%. Fair-value odds: Forge 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | York United 4.17. Forge hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Forge at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Forge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Forge 20% | York United 70%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Monday 12 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 50% | Draw 26% | York United 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Forge 1.83 / York United 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.014 / def 0.977 | York United attack 0.986 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.811 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Forge (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Forge xG
Expected Goals
1.22
York United xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs York United kick off?
Forge vs York United is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Monday 12 October 2026 at Tim Hortons Field.
Where is Forge vs York United being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs York United part of?
Forge vs York United is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 50% chance of winning, York United a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs York United?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Forge and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and York United?
Record (10 meetings): Forge 7W | Draws 3 | York United 0W.
What form are Forge and York United in?
Forge (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. York United (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Forge's attack rating (1.01) and York United's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, York United's attack versus Forge's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
50%
2.00
26%
3.81
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Forge xG
Total xG
3.05
1.22
York United xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
4%
26.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.6 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Forge and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Forge and 1.22 for York United, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Forge have picked up 1.98 PPG on a 27W 12D 8L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Forge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
York United's form line: 14W 15D 18L from 47 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-L. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Forge are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against York United.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Forge have posted 2.12 PPG from 24 outings (15W 6D 3L).
On the road, York United have gone 3W 9D 12L from 24 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of York United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Forge are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.43 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: York United in 68%.
Defensively: Forge have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Blended
York United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forge and York United in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 27W 12D 8L in their last 47 games (1.98 PPG), while York United have gone 14W 15D 18L in their last 47 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or York United away?
Forge's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 2.12 PPG; York United away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Forge or York United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, York United in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Forge and York United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Forge have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2024, when Forge won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Forge's record when hosting York United specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Forge
3
Draws
0
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Forge have won 7, York United have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Forge and York United last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when York United 1-3 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Forge and York United?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forge 42%, York United 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Forge) and 58% (York United).
On the defensive side: Forge keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forge play York United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Forge's recent matches and 67% of York United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Forge vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Forge's recent games and 58% of York United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forge and York United tend to score early?
Forge have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, York United in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.