Forge 0-0 Vancouver FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Forge at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Forge vs Vancouver FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Forge host Vancouver FC at Tim Hortons Field in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 May 2023 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Forge — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Tim Hortons Field, Forge have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.50 xG and Vancouver FC 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.312 / defence 1.043 | Vancouver FC attack 0.796 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.054 / away 1.512. Forge carry an above-average attack strength of 1.312 — their λ of 1.50 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 33 Forge games / 5 Vancouver FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Forge 40% | Draw 31% | Vancouver FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Forge 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Vancouver FC 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Forge at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Forge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (5 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs Vancouver FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Saturday 20 May 2023, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 40% | Draw 31% | Vancouver FC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Forge 1.50 / Vancouver FC 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.312 / def 1.043 | Vancouver FC attack 0.796 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.054 / away 1.512 • Poisson stance: Forge (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Forge xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Vancouver FC xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs Vancouver FC kick off?
Forge vs Vancouver FC kicked off at 00:00 on Saturday 20 May 2023 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs Vancouver FC?
Forge 0 - 0 Vancouver FC.
Where is Forge vs Vancouver FC being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs Vancouver FC part of?
Forge vs Vancouver FC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs Vancouver FC?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 40% chance of winning, Vancouver FC a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs Vancouver FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Forge and Vancouver FC will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs Vancouver FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Vancouver FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Forge and Vancouver FC in?
Forge (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Forge home split: 2.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Forge's attack rating (1.31) and Vancouver FC's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vancouver FC's attack versus Forge's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/5 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
40%
2.49
31%
3.24
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Forge xG
Total xG
2.76
1.25
Vancouver FC xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
11%
8.72
6%
15.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.0 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs Vancouver FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Forge and Vancouver FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Forge and 1.25 for Vancouver FC, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs Vancouver FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Pre-Season
Vancouver FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Forge's record when hosting Vancouver FC specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Forge
2
Draws
1
Vancouver FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Vancouver FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Forge have won 7, Vancouver FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Forge and Vancouver FC last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Forge 0-1 Vancouver FC.
Who has won more matches between Forge and Vancouver FC?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / Vancouver FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Forge's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tim Hortons Field, Regular Season - 3, as Forge and Vancouver FC drew 0-0 in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.50 xG and Vancouver FC 1.25 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Forge fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Vancouver FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.31 / defence 1.04 against Vancouver FC attack 0.80 / defence 1.09, drawn from 33/5 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Forge 40% | Draw 31% | Vancouver FC 29%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.