Forge 1-1 Valour – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Forge at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Forge face Valour.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Forge welcome Valour to Tim Hortons Field in Canadian Premier League (matchday 7). Kick-off is Sunday 16 July 2023 at 01:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Forge — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Forge's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Valour have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Valour have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Forge) versus 0.90 (Valour). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Forge trading profile (last 42 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Valour trading profile (last 42 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forge 45% versus Valour 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Forge 43% | Valour 29%). Note also that Valour surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Forge recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.50 xG and Valour 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.141 / defence 1.153 | Valour attack 0.702 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.209. Valour's attack rating of 0.702 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Data: built from Forge's last 43 games and Valour's last 42.
Result probabilities: Forge 48% | Draw 28% | Valour 24%. Fair-value odds: Forge 2.07 | Draw 3.58 | Valour 4.21. Forge hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Forge at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Forge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Forge 60% (last 10 home games) | Valour 50% (last 10 away games).
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs Valour | Competition: Canadian Premier League, matchday 7 | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Sunday 16 July 2023 at 01:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 48% | Draw 28% | Valour 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Forge 1.50 / Valour 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.141 / def 1.153 | Valour attack 0.702 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Forge (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Forge xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Valour xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Forge vs Valour FAQs
What time does Forge vs Valour kick off?
Forge vs Valour kicked off at 01:00 UK time on Sunday 16 July 2023 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs Valour?
Forge 1 - 1 Valour.
Where is Forge vs Valour being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs Valour part of?
Forge vs Valour is a Canadian Premier League fixture (matchday 7) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs Valour?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 48% chance of winning, Valour a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs Valour?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Forge and Valour will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Forge vs Valour have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Forge's attack rating (1.14) and Valour's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Valour's attack versus Forge's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Forge's last 43 games and Valour's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
48%
2.07
28%
3.58
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Forge xG
Total xG
2.48
0.98
Valour xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
18%
5.51
5%
18.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.3 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Forge vs Valour Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs Valour?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Forge and Valour expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Forge and 0.98 for Valour, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs Valour?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Forge come into this having played 42 games, going 21W 9D 12L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, Valour sit at 1.24 PPG from 42 outings (13W 13D 16L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Forge carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Valour — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Forge's home form reads 10W 4D 6L across their last 20 home games, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Valour have taken 0.80 points per game from their last 20 away games (4W 4D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valour's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Forge are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Valour are on 1.12 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Forge have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Blended
Valour
Blended
Forge (Home) vs Valour (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Forge
Blended
Valour
Blended
❓ Forge vs Valour Form FAQs
What form are Forge and Valour in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 21W 9D 12L in their last 42 games (1.71 PPG), while Valour have gone 13W 13D 16L in their last 42 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or Valour away?
Forge's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 1.70 PPG; Valour away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Forge or Valour been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Valour in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2023. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 12 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Jun 2025, when Forge won Valour 0-5 Forge.
Forge's record when hosting Valour specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Forge
2
Draws
2
Valour
Recent Meetings
❓ Forge vs Valour H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Valour?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Forge have won 6, Valour have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Forge and Valour last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2025: Valour 2-1 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Forge and Valour?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forge 55%, Valour 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Forge) and 50% (Valour).
On the defensive side: Valour in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / Valour away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Forge vs Valour Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Forge and Valour matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Forge's games and 60% of Valour's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Forge and Valour matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Forge's recent games and 50% of Valour's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forge and Valour matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Forge's recent matches and 70% of Valour's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Forge and Valour share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge and Valour finished level at 1-1 at Tim Hortons Field, Regular Season - 7, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.50 xG and Valour 0.98 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.14 / defence 1.15 against Valour attack 0.70 / defence 1.05, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forge 48% | Draw 28% | Valour 24%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 43%, Valour 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Valour's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.