Forge 0-1 Valour – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Forge at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Forge vs Valour fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Canadian Premier League clash, Regular Season - 6 as Forge welcome Valour to Tim Hortons Field. Kick-off is set for Thursday 30 June 2022 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Forge — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Forge's home record at Tim Hortons Field: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Canadian Premier League appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Valour have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Valour have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Forge) versus 1.20 (Valour). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Forge trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Valour trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forge 36% versus Valour 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forge 43% | Valour 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.90 xG and Valour 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.294 / defence 0.843 | Valour attack 1.472 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.291. Forge carry an above-average attack strength of 1.294 — their λ of 1.90 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Valour have an above-average attack strength of 1.472 — the away xG of 1.60 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 Forge games / 39 Valour games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Forge 45% | Draw 22% | Valour 33%. Fair-value odds: Forge 2.22 | Draw 4.55 | Valour 3.03. Forge hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Forge at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Forge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.50 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Forge 50% | Valour 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs Valour | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Thursday 30 Jun 2022, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 45% | Draw 22% | Valour 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Forge 1.90 / Valour 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.294 / def 0.843 | Valour attack 1.472 / def 1.165 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Forge (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Forge xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Valour xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs Valour kick off?
Forge vs Valour kicked off at 00:00 on Thursday 30 June 2022 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs Valour?
Forge 0 - 1 Valour.
Where is Forge vs Valour being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs Valour part of?
Forge vs Valour is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs Valour?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 45% chance of winning, Valour a 33% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs Valour?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Forge and Valour will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs Valour have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Valour?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Forge and Valour in?
Forge (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Valour (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Forge's attack rating (1.29) and Valour's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Valour's attack versus Forge's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
45%
2.21
22%
4.54
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Forge xG
Total xG
3.50
1.60
Valour xG
2.21
45%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.12
Clean Sheet
20%
4.96
15%
6.71
Win to Nil
9%
10.97
5%
20.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.2 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs Valour?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Forge and Valour expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Forge and 1.60 for Valour, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs Valour?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Forge come into this having played 28 games, going 17W 2D 9L for 1.89 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Valour sit at 1.25 PPG from 28 outings (10W 5D 13L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-D across their last five.
Forge carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of Valour — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Forge's home form reads 8W 1D 5L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Valour have taken 0.79 points per game from 14 outings (3W 2D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valour's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Forge are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Valour are on 1.36 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Forge have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Valour in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Current Season
Valour
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forge and Valour in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 17W 2D 9L in their last 28 games (1.89 PPG), while Valour have gone 10W 5D 13L in their last 28 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or Valour away?
Forge's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 1.79 PPG; Valour away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Forge or Valour been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Valour in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Forge and Valour runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 12 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jun 2025, when Forge won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Forge's record when hosting Valour specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Forge
2
Draws
2
Valour
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Valour?
From 10 meetings on record, Forge have won 6, Valour have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Forge and Valour last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2025, when Valour 2-1 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Forge and Valour?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forge 43%, Valour 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Forge) and 57% (Valour).
On the defensive side: Forge have failed to score in 29% of games; Valour in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / Valour away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forge play Valour?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Forge's recent matches and 57% of Valour's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Forge vs Valour usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Forge's recent games and 57% of Valour's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forge and Valour tend to score early?
Forge have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Valour in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Valour defy the odds to beat Forge 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valour beat Forge 0-1 at Tim Hortons Field, Regular Season - 6, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.90 xG and Valour 1.60 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Forge fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.29 / defence 0.84 against Valour attack 1.47 / defence 1.17, drawn from 37/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forge 45% | Draw 22% | Valour 33%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Valour win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 43%, Valour 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Valour's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Valour winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Forge (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward. Valour (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.