Forge 1-0 Supra du Quebec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Forge at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Forge vs Supra du Quebec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Group Stage sees Supra du Quebec travel to Tim Hortons Field to take on Forge. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 13 May 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Forge stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Forge have posted 7W 1D 2L at Tim Hortons Field — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tim Hortons Field. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Forge are significantly better at Tim Hortons Field than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 2.16 xG and Supra du Quebec 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.038 / defence 0.934 | Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.268. Data: 28 Forge games / 0 Supra du Quebec games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Forge 62% | Draw 23% | Supra du Quebec 15%. Fair-value odds: Forge 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | Supra du Quebec 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Forge (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Forge are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs Supra du Quebec | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Wednesday 13 May 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 62% | Draw 23% | Supra du Quebec 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 58% | xG Forge 2.16 / Supra du Quebec 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.038 / def 0.934 | Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.810 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Forge (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Forge xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Supra du Quebec xG
58%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs Supra du Quebec kick off?
Forge vs Supra du Quebec kicked off at 15:00 on Wednesday 13 May 2026 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs Supra du Quebec?
Forge 1 - 0 Supra du Quebec.
Where is Forge vs Supra du Quebec being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs Supra du Quebec part of?
Forge vs Supra du Quebec is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs Supra du Quebec?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 62% chance of winning, Supra du Quebec a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs Supra du Quebec?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Forge and Supra du Quebec will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs Supra du Quebec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Supra du Quebec?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Forge and Supra du Quebec in?
Forge (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Forge home split: 2.20 PPG from 10 | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | CS 6.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Forge's attack at 1.04x the league average against Supra du Quebec's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 2.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Supra du Quebec's attack versus Forge's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
62%
1.61
23%
4.39
15%
6.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Forge xG
Total xG
3.17
1.01
Supra du Quebec xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
6.64
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
12%
8.67
Win to Nil
23%
4.40
2%
57.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs Supra du Quebec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Forge and Supra du Quebec expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Forge and 1.01 for Supra du Quebec, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs Supra du Quebec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Pre-Season
Supra du Quebec
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Forge's record when hosting Supra du Quebec specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Forge
0
Draws
1
Supra du Quebec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Supra du Quebec?
From 4 meetings on record, Forge have won 3, Supra du Quebec have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Forge and Supra du Quebec last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Supra du Quebec 1-0 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Forge and Supra du Quebec?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / Supra du Quebec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Forge edge out Supra du Quebec 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge beat Supra du Quebec 1-0 at Tim Hortons Field, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 2.16 xG and Supra du Quebec 1.01 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Forge fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Supra du Quebec landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.04 / defence 0.93 against Supra du Quebec attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 28/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forge 62% | Draw 23% | Supra du Quebec 15%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.