Forge 0-1 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 52%, yet in-form Forge provide a compelling counter-argument — this Forge vs Pacific FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tim Hortons Field plays host to Forge versus Pacific FC in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 11 June 2023 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Forge's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Forge's form when playing at home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 games at Tim Hortons Field this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Pacific FC have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Pacific FC's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Forge's 1.80 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Pacific FC's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Forge half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Pacific FC half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forge 40% versus Pacific FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forge 45% | Pacific FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.51 xG and Pacific FC 2.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.096 / defence 1.065 | Pacific FC attack 1.589 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 1.111 / away 1.336. Pacific FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.241 — this is suppressing Forge's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Pacific FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.589 — the away xG of 2.26 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 Forge games / 36 Pacific FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Forge 23% | Draw 25% | Pacific FC 52%. Fair-value odds: Forge 4.35 | Draw 4.00 | Pacific FC 1.92. Pacific FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.77. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.77 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 2.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pacific FC are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Forge (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pacific FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.77 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates are neutral: Forge 50% | Pacific FC 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Jun 2023, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 23% | Draw 25% | Pacific FC 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 72% | xG Forge 1.51 / Pacific FC 2.26 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.096 / def 1.065 | Pacific FC attack 1.589 / def 1.241 | league avg home 1.111 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Forge xG
Expected Goals
2.26
Pacific FC xG
72%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs Pacific FC kick off?
Forge vs Pacific FC kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 11 June 2023 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs Pacific FC?
Forge 0 - 1 Pacific FC.
Where is Forge vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs Pacific FC part of?
Forge vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 23% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 52% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Forge and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Pacific FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Forge and Pacific FC in?
Forge (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Pacific FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Forge's attack at 1.10x the league average against Pacific FC's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pacific FC's attack (1.59x) against Forge's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 2.26.
These ratings are built from 37/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 8.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
23%
4.34
25%
4.04
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
1 – 3
6.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Forge xG
Total xG
3.77
2.26
Pacific FC xG
4.34
23%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.59
Clean Sheet
10%
9.59
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
2%
41.65
12%
8.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 7.9 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Forge and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Forge and 2.26 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 3.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Forge come into this having played 60 games, going 33W 8D 19L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Pacific FC sit at 1.63 PPG from 60 outings (28W 14D 18L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.78 PPG for Forge against 1.63 for Pacific FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Forge's home form reads 18W 3D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Pacific FC have taken 1.40 points per game from 30 outings (12W 6D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Forge are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.45 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Forge have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Current Season
Pacific FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forge and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 33W 8D 19L in their last 60 games (1.78 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 28W 14D 18L in their last 60 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or Pacific FC away?
Forge's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 1.90 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Forge or Pacific FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Pacific FC in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Forge go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Forge won 4-0 on 27 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Forge have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Pacific FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Forge
1
Draws
1
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Forge have won 8, Pacific FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Forge and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Pacific FC 0-1 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Forge and Pacific FC?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Pacific FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forge 43%, Pacific FC 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Forge) and 40% (Pacific FC).
On the defensive side: Forge keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Pacific FC in 33%; Pacific FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forge play Pacific FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Forge's recent matches and 40% of Pacific FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Forge vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Forge's recent games and 40% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forge and Pacific FC tend to score early?
Forge have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Pacific FC in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pacific FC edge out Forge 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC beat Forge 0-1 at Tim Hortons Field, Regular Season - 5, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.51 xG and Pacific FC 2.26 xG, a combined 3.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Forge fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Pacific FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.10 / defence 1.06 against Pacific FC attack 1.59 / defence 1.24, drawn from 37/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forge 23% | Draw 25% | Pacific FC 52%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 45%, Pacific FC 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pacific FC's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Forge 1.78 PPG, Pacific FC 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pacific FC win broke the near-deadlock. Forge (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward. Pacific FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.