Forge 1-0 FC Edmonton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Forge at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Forge vs FC Edmonton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees FC Edmonton travel to IG Field to take on Forge. The game is scheduled for Thursday 15 July 2021, 03:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Forge stand at 2W 0D 3L from 5 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Forge have played only a handful of Canadian Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, FC Edmonton have recorded 1W 1D 2L from 4 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. FC Edmonton have played only a handful of Canadian Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Forge at 1.20 PPG versus FC Edmonton's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Forge have won 0, FC Edmonton 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Jul 2021, ended 0–2 with FC Edmonton winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Forge in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
FC Edmonton in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Forge 0% | FC Edmonton 50%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Forge 25% | FC Edmonton 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.30 xG and FC Edmonton 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.090 / defence 1.169 | FC Edmonton attack 0.885 / defence 1.325. League average goals — home 0.900 / away 0.880. FC Edmonton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.325 — this is suppressing Forge's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Forge games / 4 FC Edmonton games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Forge 43% | Draw 34% | FC Edmonton 23%. Fair-value odds: Forge 2.33 | Draw 2.94 | FC Edmonton 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Forge as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Forge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Forge 0% | FC Edmonton 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (4 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs FC Edmonton | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Thursday 15 Jul 2021, 03:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 43% | Draw 34% | FC Edmonton 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Forge 1.30 / FC Edmonton 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.090 / def 1.169 | FC Edmonton attack 0.885 / def 1.325 | league avg home 0.900 / away 0.880 • Poisson stance: Forge (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Forge xG
Expected Goals
0.91
FC Edmonton xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs FC Edmonton kick off?
Forge vs FC Edmonton kicked off at 03:00 on Thursday 15 July 2021 at IG Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs FC Edmonton?
Forge 1 - 0 FC Edmonton.
Where is Forge vs FC Edmonton being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is Forge vs FC Edmonton part of?
Forge vs FC Edmonton is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs FC Edmonton?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 43% chance of winning, FC Edmonton a 23% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs FC Edmonton?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Forge and FC Edmonton will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs FC Edmonton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and FC Edmonton?
Record (1 meetings): Forge 0W | Draws 0 | FC Edmonton 1W.
What form are Forge and FC Edmonton in?
Forge (all comps): 2W-0D-3L in 5 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. FC Edmonton (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Forge's attack at 1.09x the league average against FC Edmonton's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Edmonton's attack versus Forge's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (5/4 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
43%
2.35
34%
2.92
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Forge xG
Total xG
2.21
0.91
FC Edmonton xG
2.35
43%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
17%
5.85
6%
15.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.0 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs FC Edmonton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Forge and FC Edmonton expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Forge and 0.91 for FC Edmonton, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs FC Edmonton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Forge's recent record stands at 2W 0D 2L from 4 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Forge, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Edmonton, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 2L across 4 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Edmonton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Forge by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Edmonton heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Forge are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; FC Edmonton are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Forge have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Forge have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Early Season
FC Edmonton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forge and FC Edmonton in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 games (1.50 PPG), while FC Edmonton have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
Have Forge or FC Edmonton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, FC Edmonton in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Jul 2022, when Forge won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Forge's record when hosting FC Edmonton specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Forge
1
Draws
2
FC Edmonton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and FC Edmonton?
From 7 meetings on record, Forge have won 4, FC Edmonton have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Forge and FC Edmonton last play each other?
They last met on 25 September 2022, when FC Edmonton 1-1 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Forge and FC Edmonton?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Forge tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
FC Edmonton tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Forge 0% BTTS, FC Edmonton 50%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Forge and 25% for FC Edmonton.
On the defensive side: Forge keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Forge have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / FC Edmonton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forge play FC Edmonton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Forge's recent matches and 50% of FC Edmonton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Forge vs FC Edmonton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Forge's recent games and 25% of FC Edmonton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forge and FC Edmonton tend to score early?
Forge have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, FC Edmonton in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Forge edge out FC Edmonton 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge beat FC Edmonton 1-0 at IG Field, Regular Season - 3, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.30 xG and FC Edmonton 0.91 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Edmonton landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.09 / defence 1.17 against FC Edmonton attack 0.89 / defence 1.32, drawn from 5/4 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Forge 43% | Draw 34% | FC Edmonton 23%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 25%, FC Edmonton 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Edmonton's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. FC Edmonton managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.