Forge 0-1 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Forge at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Forge vs Cavalry FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Forge host Cavalry FC at Tim Hortons Field in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 16 November 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Forge — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Forge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Forge's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Tim Hortons Field this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Cavalry FC have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cavalry FC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Forge are in the better shape of the two on current Canadian Premier League data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Forge in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Cavalry FC in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forge 33% versus Cavalry FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forge 41% | Cavalry FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.43 xG and Cavalry FC 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.171 / defence 0.983 | Cavalry FC attack 0.896 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.194. Data: 27 Forge games / 27 Cavalry FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Forge 44% | Draw 30% | Cavalry FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Forge 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Cavalry FC 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Forge are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Forge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Forge 50% | Cavalry FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 Nov 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 44% | Draw 30% | Cavalry FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Forge 1.43 / Cavalry FC 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.171 / def 0.983 | Cavalry FC attack 0.896 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Forge (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Forge xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Cavalry FC xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Forge vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 23:00 on Tuesday 16 November 2021 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Forge 0 - 1 Cavalry FC.
Where is Forge vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs Cavalry FC part of?
Forge vs Cavalry FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 44% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Forge and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Cavalry FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Forge and Cavalry FC in?
Forge (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Cavalry FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Forge's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Cavalry FC's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, Cavalry FC's attack versus Forge's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
44%
2.27
30%
3.35
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Forge xG
Total xG
2.48
1.05
Cavalry FC xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
15%
6.50
6%
15.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.6 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Forge and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Forge and 1.05 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Forge come into this having played 27 games, going 16W 2D 9L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Forge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cavalry FC sit at 1.74 PPG from 27 outings (13W 8D 6L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Forge on 1.85 PPG, Cavalry FC on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Forge's home form reads 8W 1D 4L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Cavalry FC have taken 1.85 points per game from 13 outings (7W 3D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Forge are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.22 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Forge have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Blended
Cavalry FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forge and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 16W 2D 9L in their last 27 games (1.85 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 13W 8D 6L in their last 27 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or Cavalry FC away?
Forge's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 1.92 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.85 PPG.
Have Forge or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Forge and Cavalry FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 31 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Aug 2025, when Cavalry FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Forge's record when hosting Cavalry FC specifically: 3W 2D 2L from 7 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Forge
3
Draws
4
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Forge have won 3, Cavalry FC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Forge and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Forge 1-0 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Forge and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forge 38%, Cavalry FC 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Forge) and 54% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: Forge keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Cavalry FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forge play Cavalry FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Forge's recent matches and 62% of Cavalry FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Forge vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Forge's recent games and 54% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forge and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
Forge have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cavalry FC defy the odds to beat Forge 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Forge 0-1 at Tim Hortons Field, Regular Season - 12, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.43 xG and Cavalry FC 1.05 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Forge fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.17 / defence 0.98 against Cavalry FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.05, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forge 44% | Draw 30% | Cavalry FC 26%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Cavalry FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 41%, Cavalry FC 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Forge 1.85 PPG, Cavalry FC 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cavalry FC win broke the near-deadlock. Forge (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.