Forge 1-1 Atlético Ottawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Forge at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Forge vs Atlético Ottawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Canadian Premier League clash, Regular Season - 3 as Forge welcome Atlético Ottawa to Tim Hortons Field. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 May 2022 at 21:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Forge have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Forge's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Tim Hortons Field this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Atlético Ottawa — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Atlético Ottawa away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Forge at 1.60 PPG versus Atlético Ottawa's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Forge trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Atlético Ottawa trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forge 36% versus Atlético Ottawa 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forge 43% | Atlético Ottawa 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.90 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.193 / defence 0.958 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.131 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.098. Data: 32 Forge games / 33 Atlético Ottawa games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Forge 54% | Draw 22% | Atlético Ottawa 24%. Fair-value odds: Forge 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | Atlético Ottawa 4.17. Forge hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Forge as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Forge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Forge 50% | Atlético Ottawa 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs Atlético Ottawa | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 54% | Draw 22% | Atlético Ottawa 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 59% | xG Forge 1.90 / Atlético Ottawa 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.193 / def 0.958 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.131 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Forge (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Forge xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Atlético Ottawa xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs Atlético Ottawa kick off?
Forge vs Atlético Ottawa kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs Atlético Ottawa?
Forge 1 - 1 Atlético Ottawa.
Where is Forge vs Atlético Ottawa being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs Atlético Ottawa part of?
Forge vs Atlético Ottawa is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 54% chance of winning, Atlético Ottawa a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Forge and Atlético Ottawa will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs Atlético Ottawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Atlético Ottawa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Forge and Atlético Ottawa in?
Forge (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Forge's attack at 1.19x the league average against Atlético Ottawa's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atlético Ottawa's attack versus Forge's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
54%
1.85
22%
4.48
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Forge xG
Total xG
3.09
1.19
Atlético Ottawa xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
15%
6.69
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
4%
28.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.3 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Forge and Atlético Ottawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Forge and 1.19 for Atlético Ottawa, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs Atlético Ottawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 28 outings, Forge have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 17W 2D 9L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Atlético Ottawa's form line: 6W 8D 14L from 28 games, 0.93 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-D.
Put side by side, Forge are the form team by 0.96 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Atlético Ottawa.
Venue Form
On home soil, Forge have posted 1.79 PPG from 14 outings (8W 1D 5L).
On the road, Atlético Ottawa have gone 3W 3D 8L from 14 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Forge are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Atlético Ottawa are on 1.07 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Defensively: Forge have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Current Season
Atlético Ottawa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forge and Atlético Ottawa in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 17W 2D 9L in their last 28 games (1.89 PPG), while Atlético Ottawa have gone 6W 8D 14L in their last 28 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or Atlético Ottawa away?
Forge's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 1.79 PPG; Atlético Ottawa away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Forge or Atlético Ottawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Atlético Ottawa in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Aug 2024, when Forge won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Forge's record when hosting Atlético Ottawa specifically: 4W 1D 2L from 7 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Forge
3
Draws
3
Atlético Ottawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Atlético Ottawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Forge have won 4, Atlético Ottawa have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Forge and Atlético Ottawa last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Atlético Ottawa 2-1 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Forge and Atlético Ottawa?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forge 43%, Atlético Ottawa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Forge) and 36% (Atlético Ottawa).
On the defensive side: Forge have failed to score in 29% of games; Atlético Ottawa in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / Atlético Ottawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forge play Atlético Ottawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Forge's recent matches and 50% of Atlético Ottawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Forge vs Atlético Ottawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Forge's recent games and 36% of Atlético Ottawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forge and Atlético Ottawa tend to score early?
Forge have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Atlético Ottawa in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Forge and Atlético Ottawa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tim Hortons Field, Regular Season - 3, as Forge and Atlético Ottawa drew 1-1 in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.90 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.19 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Forge fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.19 / defence 0.96 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.13 / defence 1.10, drawn from 32/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Forge 54% | Draw 22% | Atlético Ottawa 24%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 43%, Atlético Ottawa 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.