FC Edmonton 3-1 Valour – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Edmonton at 37%, yet in-form Valour provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Edmonton vs Valour fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Edmonton and Valour meet at Clarke Field in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 August 2021 at 02:00 UTC.
Current Form
FC Edmonton's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 2W 2D 4L from 8 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 0.88 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Edmonton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Edmonton's home record at Clarke Field: 2W 1D 1L from 4 Canadian Premier League appearances (1.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Clarke Field. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.75 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — FC Edmonton are significantly better at Clarke Field than their overall form suggests.
Valour have collected 2.25 PPG across 8 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 6W 0D 2L. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.38. Defensively, 0.38 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 8 games (75%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 12% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Valour, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Valour have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.25 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Valour are the stronger side — 1.25 PPG clear of the hosts (2.25 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — FC Edmonton have seen both teams score in just 25% of their games, Valour in only 25%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Trading & In-Play
FC Edmonton — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Valour — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (FC Edmonton 38% | Valour 12%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (FC Edmonton 12% | Valour 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Edmonton 0.89 xG and Valour 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Edmonton attack 0.903 / defence 1.012 | Valour attack 0.868 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 0.921 / away 0.847. Data: 8 FC Edmonton games / 8 Valour games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Edmonton 37% | Draw 35% | Valour 28%. Fair-value odds: FC Edmonton 2.70 | Draw 2.86 | Valour 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.64. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.64 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Valour's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Edmonton as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Valour (2.25 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Edmonton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.64 combined xG gives a 23% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 31%. Form rates corroborate: FC Edmonton 25% | Valour 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Edmonton vs Valour | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Clarke Field • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Aug 2021, 02:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Edmonton 37% | Draw 35% | Valour 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 31% | xG FC Edmonton 0.89 / Valour 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: FC Edmonton attack 0.903 / def 1.012 | Valour attack 0.868 / def 1.075 | league avg home 0.921 / away 0.847 • Poisson stance: FC Edmonton (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
FC Edmonton xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Valour xG
31%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Edmonton vs Valour kick off?
FC Edmonton vs Valour kicked off at 02:00 on Sunday 1 August 2021 at Clarke Field.
What was the final score in FC Edmonton vs Valour?
FC Edmonton 3 - 1 Valour.
Where is FC Edmonton vs Valour being played?
The match is being played at Clarke Field.
What competition is FC Edmonton vs Valour part of?
FC Edmonton vs Valour is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win FC Edmonton vs Valour?
Our statistical model gives FC Edmonton a 37% chance of winning, Valour a 28% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making FC Edmonton the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Edmonton vs Valour?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both FC Edmonton and Valour will score (BTTS).
Will FC Edmonton vs Valour have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and Valour?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Edmonton and Valour in?
FC Edmonton (all comps): 2W-2D-4L in 8 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 0.88 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Valour (all comps): 6W-0D-2L in 8 | 2.25 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.38 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Edmonton's attack at 0.90x the league average against Valour's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Valour's attack (0.87x) against FC Edmonton's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 21.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.7%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Edmonton Win
37%
2.71
35%
2.88
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
FC Edmonton xG
Total xG
1.64
0.74
Valour xG
2.71
37%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.22
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
18%
5.70
12%
8.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.4 | 14.5 | 5.4 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 12.9 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Edmonton vs Valour?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.1%.
How many goals are FC Edmonton and Valour expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for FC Edmonton and 0.74 for Valour, a combined total of 1.64.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Edmonton vs Valour?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 8 outings, FC Edmonton have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 2W 2D 4L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC Edmonton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valour's form line: 6W 0D 2L from 8 games, 2.25 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-L. The sample for Valour is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Valour are the form team by 1.25 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Edmonton.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Edmonton have posted 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — FC Edmonton are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Valour have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valour's season.
Attack vs Defence
FC Edmonton are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Valour are on 1.50 scored and 0.38 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Valour in 12%.
Defensively: Valour in 75% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Edmonton
Blended
Valour
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Edmonton and Valour in coming into this match?
FC Edmonton have gone 2W 2D 4L in their last 8 games (1.00 PPG), while Valour have gone 6W 0D 2L in their last 8 (2.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Edmonton at home or Valour away?
FC Edmonton's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Edmonton at home: 1.75 PPG; Valour away: 1.50 PPG.
Have FC Edmonton or Valour been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Edmonton have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Valour in 75%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valour won 3-0 on 25 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Edmonton have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valour — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Edmonton
6
Draws
1
Valour
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and Valour?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Edmonton have won 3, Valour have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did FC Edmonton and Valour last play each other?
They last met on 8 October 2022, when FC Edmonton 3-1 Valour.
Who has won more matches between FC Edmonton and Valour?
FC Edmonton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Edmonton tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (FC Edmonton) and 25% (Valour) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for FC Edmonton and 25% for Valour.
On the defensive side: FC Edmonton keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Valour in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Edmonton home games / Valour away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Edmonton play Valour?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of FC Edmonton's recent matches and 25% of Valour's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Edmonton vs Valour usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of FC Edmonton's recent games and 25% of Valour's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Edmonton and Valour tend to score early?
FC Edmonton have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Valour in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Edmonton cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Valour.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Edmonton beat Valour 3-1 at Clarke Field, Regular Season - 5, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Edmonton 0.89 xG and Valour 0.74 xG, a combined 1.64. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC Edmonton beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Edmonton attack 0.90 / defence 1.01 against Valour attack 0.87 / defence 1.07, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Edmonton 37% | Draw 35% | Valour 28%, with FC Edmonton to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. Over 3.5 was 8% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 19% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Edmonton 12%, Valour 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Edmonton's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Valour's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 12% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Valour arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with FC Edmonton winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Edmonton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Valour (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.