FC Edmonton 2-3 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Edmonton at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Pacific FC travel to Clarke Field to take on FC Edmonton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 July 2022, 21:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Edmonton stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Edmonton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Edmonton's home record at Clarke Field: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — FC Edmonton are significantly better at Clarke Field than their overall form suggests.
Pacific FC — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacific FC's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Edmonton 0.70 PPG, Pacific FC 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for FC Edmonton, 3 for Pacific FC and 3 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2022, ended 1–2 with Pacific FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Edmonton in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Edmonton 62% and Pacific FC 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Edmonton 52% | Pacific FC 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Edmonton 1.43 xG and Pacific FC 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Edmonton attack 1.153 / defence 1.079 | Pacific FC attack 0.654 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.308. Data: 42 FC Edmonton games / 42 Pacific FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Edmonton 49% | Draw 27% | Pacific FC 24%. Fair-value odds: FC Edmonton 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Pacific FC 4.17. FC Edmonton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Edmonton as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Edmonton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Edmonton 50% | Pacific FC 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Clarke Field • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Jul 2022, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Edmonton 49% | Draw 27% | Pacific FC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG FC Edmonton 1.43 / Pacific FC 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: FC Edmonton attack 1.153 / def 1.079 | Pacific FC attack 0.654 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.212 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: FC Edmonton (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
FC Edmonton xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Pacific FC xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC kick off?
FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 9 July 2022 at Clarke Field.
What was the final score in FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC?
FC Edmonton 2 - 3 Pacific FC.
Where is FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at Clarke Field.
What competition is FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC part of?
FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Edmonton a 49% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Edmonton the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both FC Edmonton and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and Pacific FC?
Record (7 meetings): FC Edmonton 1W | Draws 3 | Pacific FC 3W.
What form are FC Edmonton and Pacific FC in?
FC Edmonton (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Pacific FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Edmonton's attack rating (1.15) and Pacific FC's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus FC Edmonton's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Edmonton Win
49%
2.04
27%
3.73
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
FC Edmonton xG
Total xG
2.36
0.92
Pacific FC xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
19%
5.15
6%
17.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.5 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are FC Edmonton and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for FC Edmonton and 0.92 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Edmonton come into this having played 42 games, going 8W 14D 20L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W. The sample for FC Edmonton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pacific FC sit at 1.60 PPG from 42 outings (19W 10D 13L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pacific FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of FC Edmonton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Edmonton's home form reads 6W 7D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Pacific FC have taken 1.24 points per game from 21 outings (7W 5D 9L).
The Goals Picture
FC Edmonton are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.48 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Edmonton have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Edmonton
Blended
Pacific FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Edmonton and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
FC Edmonton have gone 8W 14D 20L in their last 42 games (0.90 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 19W 10D 13L in their last 42 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Edmonton at home or Pacific FC away?
Pacific FC's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Edmonton at home: 1.19 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Edmonton and Pacific FC runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pacific FC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2021, when Pacific FC won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Edmonton's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
FC Edmonton
3
Draws
5
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and Pacific FC?
From 9 meetings on record, FC Edmonton have won 1, Pacific FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Edmonton and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 1 October 2022, when Pacific FC 1-0 FC Edmonton.
Who has won more matches between FC Edmonton and Pacific FC?
Pacific FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Edmonton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Pacific FC see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Edmonton 62%, Pacific FC 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (FC Edmonton) and 43% (Pacific FC).
On the defensive side: Pacific FC in 38%; Pacific FC in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Edmonton home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Edmonton play Pacific FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of FC Edmonton's recent matches and 38% of Pacific FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of FC Edmonton's recent games and 43% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Edmonton and Pacific FC tend to score early?
FC Edmonton have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Pacific FC in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pacific FC defy the odds to beat FC Edmonton 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC beat FC Edmonton 2-3 at Clarke Field, Regular Season - 7, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Edmonton 1.43 xG and Pacific FC 0.92 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Pacific FC outscored their 0.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Edmonton attack 1.15 / defence 1.08 against Pacific FC attack 0.65 / defence 1.03, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Edmonton 49% | Draw 27% | Pacific FC 24%, with FC Edmonton to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Pacific FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Edmonton 52%, Pacific FC 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Edmonton's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Pacific FC's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pacific FC arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.90. Form held, and they took the win. FC Edmonton (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pacific FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.