Cavalry FC 2-1 Vancouver FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cavalry FC at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
ATCO Field plays host to Cavalry FC versus Vancouver FC in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 22:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cavalry FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at ATCO Field, Cavalry FC have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Vancouver FC have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vancouver FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vancouver FC have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Cavalry FC's 2.20 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Vancouver FC's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Vancouver FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 61% versus Vancouver FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 48% | Vancouver FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.97 xG and Vancouver FC 0.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.155 / defence 0.723 | Vancouver FC attack 0.589 / defence 1.334. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.304. Vancouver FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.334 — this is suppressing Cavalry FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Cavalry FC's defence rating of 0.723 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Cavalry FC games / 23 Vancouver FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 69% | Draw 23% | Vancouver FC 8%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 1.45 | Draw 4.35 | Vancouver FC 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Cavalry FC (69%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cavalry FC at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cavalry FC 50% | Vancouver FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Sep 2023, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 69% | Draw 23% | Vancouver FC 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 38% | xG Cavalry FC 1.97 / Vancouver FC 0.56 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.155 / def 0.723 | Vancouver FC attack 0.589 / def 1.334 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
0.56
Vancouver FC xG
38%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC kicked off at 22:00 on Saturday 16 September 2023 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?
Cavalry FC 2 - 1 Vancouver FC.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC part of?
Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 69% chance of winning, Vancouver FC a 8% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Vancouver FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cavalry FC's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Vancouver FC's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.97. Flip it around — Vancouver FC's attack (0.59x) against Cavalry FC's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.56.
These ratings are built from 52/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.6%), 3-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
69%
1.44
23%
4.43
8%
12.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
15.5%
Home win
3 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
2.52
0.56
Vancouver FC xG
1.44
69%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
12.56
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
57%
1.74
14%
7.14
Win to Nil
40%
2.51
1%
89.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 8.8 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.5 | 8.6 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.2 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 0.56 for Vancouver FC, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 23 outings, Cavalry FC have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 12W 6D 5L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vancouver FC's form line: 5W 5D 13L from 23 games, 0.87 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Vancouver FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cavalry FC are the form team by 0.96 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vancouver FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cavalry FC have posted 2.18 PPG from 11 outings (7W 3D 1L).
On the road, Vancouver FC have gone 1W 2D 8L from 11 away games — 0.45 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.87 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Vancouver FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Vancouver FC are on 0.91 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cavalry FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Blended
Vancouver FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 12W 6D 5L in their last 23 games (1.83 PPG), while Vancouver FC have gone 5W 5D 13L in their last 23 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or Vancouver FC away?
Cavalry FC's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 2.18 PPG; Vancouver FC away: 0.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Vancouver FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Cavalry FC
5
Draws
1
Vancouver FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 4, Vancouver FC have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Vancouver FC 1-0 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cavalry FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 54%, Vancouver FC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Cavalry FC) and 46% (Vancouver FC).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Vancouver FC in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Vancouver FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play Vancouver FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Cavalry FC's recent matches and 46% of Vancouver FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Cavalry FC's recent games and 46% of Vancouver FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Vancouver FC in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cavalry FC edge out Vancouver FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Vancouver FC 2-1 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 11, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.97 xG and Vancouver FC 0.56 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.16 / defence 0.72 against Vancouver FC attack 0.59 / defence 1.33, drawn from 52/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 69% | Draw 23% | Vancouver FC 8%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 48%, Vancouver FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Vancouver FC's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.