Cavalry FC 1-0 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cavalry FC at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Pacific FC travel to ATCO Field to take on Cavalry FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 August 2024, 22:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cavalry FC stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cavalry FC's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at ATCO Field this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Pacific FC have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacific FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Cavalry FC are in the better shape of the two on current Canadian Premier League data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Cavalry FC have won 0, Pacific FC 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 Jun 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Cavalry FC in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 65% versus Pacific FC 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 49% | Pacific FC 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.31 xG and Pacific FC 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.016 / defence 1.004 | Pacific FC attack 0.799 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.232. Data: 47 Cavalry FC games / 46 Pacific FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 42% | Draw 31% | Pacific FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Pacific FC 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cavalry FC at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Cavalry FC 80% | Pacific FC 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 42% | Draw 31% | Pacific FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Cavalry FC 1.31 / Pacific FC 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.016 / def 1.004 | Pacific FC attack 0.799 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Pacific FC xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC kicked off at 22:00 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Cavalry FC 1 - 0 Pacific FC.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC part of?
Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 42% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Cavalry FC and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Pacific FC?
Record (2 meetings): Cavalry FC 0W | Draws 2 | Pacific FC 0W.
What form are Cavalry FC and Pacific FC in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Pacific FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cavalry FC's attack at 1.02x the league average against Pacific FC's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus Cavalry FC's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
42%
2.37
31%
3.18
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
2.29
0.99
Pacific FC xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
16%
6.37
7%
14.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.0 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 0.99 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cavalry FC's recent record stands at 24W 15D 10L from 49 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pacific FC, meanwhile, have gone 18W 12D 19L across 49 games — 1.35 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cavalry FC by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pacific FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cavalry FC have managed 14W 7D 3L from 24 games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pacific FC's away record stands at 9W 5D 10L across 24 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.20 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cavalry FC have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Blended
Pacific FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 24W 15D 10L in their last 49 games (1.78 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 18W 12D 19L in their last 49 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or Pacific FC away?
Cavalry FC's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 2.04 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or Pacific FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Pacific FC in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Cavalry FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2025, when Cavalry FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cavalry FC's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Cavalry FC
3
Draws
1
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 6, Pacific FC have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Cavalry FC 3-0 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and Pacific FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 67%, Pacific FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Cavalry FC) and 54% (Pacific FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pacific FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play Pacific FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Cavalry FC's games and 54% of Pacific FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Cavalry FC's matches and 54% of Pacific FC's.
Do Cavalry FC and Pacific FC tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Pacific FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cavalry FC edge out Pacific FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Pacific FC 1-0 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 9, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.31 xG and Pacific FC 0.99 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pacific FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.02 / defence 1.00 against Pacific FC attack 0.80 / defence 0.88, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 42% | Draw 31% | Pacific FC 26%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 49%, Pacific FC 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Pacific FC's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.35. Form held, and they took the win. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Pacific FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.