Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa Prediction & Preview

Poisson model rates Cavalry FC at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cavalry FC face Atlético Ottawa.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Atlético Ottawa make the trip to ATCO Field to face Cavalry FC in Canadian Premier League (Final). The match kicks off on Saturday 21 November 2026 at 20:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Cavalry FC have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Cavalry FC at home: 9W 1D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Cavalry FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Atlético Ottawa (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Atlético Ottawa's form when playing away from home: 5W 0D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Cavalry FC against 1.40 for Atlético Ottawa. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 10 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Cavalry FC, 5 for Atlético Ottawa and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.6 per game across the 10 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2026, ended Cavalry FC 2–3 Atlético Ottawa — a Atlético Ottawa win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Atlético Ottawa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 55%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 57% versus Atlético Ottawa 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 58% | Atlético Ottawa 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.81 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.005 / defence 0.997 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.005 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.812 / away 1.267. Data: built from Cavalry FC's last 28 games and Atlético Ottawa's last 28. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 48% | Draw 26% | Atlético Ottawa 25%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 2.07 | Draw 3.80 | Atlético Ottawa 3.95. Cavalry FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.81 / 1.27) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Cavalry FC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Cavalry FC's last 10 home games and Atlético Ottawa's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 10 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cavalry FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Atlético Ottawa 70% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Cavalry FC 28 games, Atlético Ottawa 28) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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