Atlético Ottawa 1-1 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates York United at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atlético Ottawa vs York United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
TD Place Stadium plays host to Atlético Ottawa versus York United in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Thursday 19 August 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Atlético Ottawa have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Atlético Ottawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atlético Ottawa's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 3L across 5 games at TD Place Stadium this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
York United (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
York United away from home this season: 2W 1D 3L from 6 away games — 1.17 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, York United are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Atlético Ottawa half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
York United half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atlético Ottawa 46% versus York United 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atlético Ottawa 36% | York United 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atlético Ottawa 1.17 xG and York United 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.851 / defence 1.472 | York United attack 0.947 / defence 1.453. League average goals — home 0.947 / away 0.922. York United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.453 — this is suppressing Atlético Ottawa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Atlético Ottawa games / 11 York United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 34% | Draw 27% | York United 39%. Fair-value odds: Atlético Ottawa 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | York United 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is York United at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on York United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Atlético Ottawa 60% | York United 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atlético Ottawa vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: TD Place Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 19 Aug 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 34% | Draw 27% | York United 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Atlético Ottawa 1.17 / York United 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.851 / def 1.472 | York United attack 0.947 / def 1.453 | league avg home 0.947 / away 0.922 • Poisson stance: York United (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Atlético Ottawa xG
Expected Goals
1.28
York United xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atlético Ottawa vs York United kick off?
Atlético Ottawa vs York United kicked off at 00:00 on Thursday 19 August 2021 at TD Place Stadium.
What was the final score in Atlético Ottawa vs York United?
Atlético Ottawa 1 - 1 York United.
Where is Atlético Ottawa vs York United being played?
The match is being played at TD Place Stadium.
What competition is Atlético Ottawa vs York United part of?
Atlético Ottawa vs York United is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Atlético Ottawa vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Atlético Ottawa a 34% chance of winning, York United a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atlético Ottawa vs York United?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Atlético Ottawa and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Atlético Ottawa vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and York United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atlético Ottawa and York United in?
Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. York United (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Atlético Ottawa's attack at 0.85x the league average against York United's defence at 1.45x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — York United's attack (0.95x) against Atlético Ottawa's defence (1.47x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
34%
2.97
27%
3.67
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Atlético Ottawa xG
Total xG
2.46
1.28
York United xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
9%
10.75
12%
8.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.0 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atlético Ottawa vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Atlético Ottawa and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Atlético Ottawa and 1.28 for York United, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Atlético Ottawa vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Atlético Ottawa come into this having played 11 games, going 3W 1D 7L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W. The sample for Atlético Ottawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, York United sit at 1.36 PPG from 11 outings (4W 3D 4L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
York United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Atlético Ottawa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Atlético Ottawa's home form reads 1W 1D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return.
Away from home, York United have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, York United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Atlético Ottawa are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.00 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 11 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
York United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atlético Ottawa and York United in coming into this match?
Atlético Ottawa have gone 3W 1D 7L in their last 11 games (0.91 PPG), while York United have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atlético Ottawa at home or York United away?
York United's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atlético Ottawa at home: 0.80 PPG; York United away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 17 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: York United won 4-1 on 27 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atlético Ottawa have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against York United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Atlético Ottawa
5
Draws
4
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Atlético Ottawa have won 1, York United have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Atlético Ottawa and York United last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2026, when Atlético Ottawa 1-1 York United.
Who has won more matches between Atlético Ottawa and York United?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atlético Ottawa 60%, York United 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Atlético Ottawa) and 60% (York United).
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa have failed to score in 40% of games; York United in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atlético Ottawa home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atlético Ottawa play York United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Atlético Ottawa's recent matches and 40% of York United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atlético Ottawa vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Atlético Ottawa's recent games and 60% of York United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atlético Ottawa and York United tend to score early?
Atlético Ottawa have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, York United in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atlético Ottawa and York United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atlético Ottawa and York United finished level at 1-1 at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 1.17 xG and York United 1.28 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 0.85 / defence 1.47 against York United attack 0.95 / defence 1.45, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 34% | Draw 27% | York United 39%, with York United to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 36%, York United 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
York United's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, York United arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. York United (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.