Atlético Ottawa 1-6 Valour – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atlético Ottawa at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atlético Ottawa vs Valour fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atlético Ottawa and Valour meet at TD Place Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 April 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Atlético Ottawa's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at TD Place Stadium, Atlético Ottawa have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Valour have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Canadian Premier League this season, Valour have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Atlético Ottawa against 1.20 for Valour. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Atlético Ottawa register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Valour in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Atlético Ottawa half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Valour half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atlético Ottawa 57% versus Valour 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atlético Ottawa 43% | Valour 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atlético Ottawa 1.52 xG and Valour 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.883 / defence 0.832 | Valour attack 1.175 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.563 / away 0.948. Data: 30 Atlético Ottawa games / 30 Valour games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 51% | Draw 26% | Valour 23%. Fair-value odds: Atlético Ottawa 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Valour 4.35. Atlético Ottawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atlético Ottawa at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atlético Ottawa if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Atlético Ottawa 70% | Valour 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atlético Ottawa vs Valour | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: TD Place Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Apr 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 51% | Draw 26% | Valour 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Atlético Ottawa 1.52 / Valour 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.883 / def 0.832 | Valour attack 1.175 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.563 / away 0.948 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Atlético Ottawa xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Valour xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atlético Ottawa vs Valour kick off?
Atlético Ottawa vs Valour kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 24 April 2022 at TD Place Stadium.
What was the final score in Atlético Ottawa vs Valour?
Atlético Ottawa 1 - 6 Valour.
Where is Atlético Ottawa vs Valour being played?
The match is being played at TD Place Stadium.
What competition is Atlético Ottawa vs Valour part of?
Atlético Ottawa vs Valour is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Atlético Ottawa vs Valour?
Our statistical model gives Atlético Ottawa a 51% chance of winning, Valour a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atlético Ottawa vs Valour?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Atlético Ottawa and Valour will score (BTTS).
Will Atlético Ottawa vs Valour have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Valour?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Valour in?
Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Valour (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Atlético Ottawa's attack at 0.88x the league average against Valour's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Valour's attack (1.18x) against Atlético Ottawa's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
The sample (30/30 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
51%
1.96
26%
3.86
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Atlético Ottawa xG
Total xG
2.44
0.93
Valour xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
20%
4.94
5%
19.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.2 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atlético Ottawa vs Valour?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Atlético Ottawa and Valour expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Atlético Ottawa and 0.93 for Valour, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Atlético Ottawa vs Valour?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 28 outings, Atlético Ottawa have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 6W 8D 14L record — W-L-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Valour's form line: 10W 5D 13L from 28 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.93 PPG for Atlético Ottawa against 1.25 for Valour. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Atlético Ottawa have posted 1.00 PPG from 14 outings (3W 5D 6L).
On the road, Valour have gone 3W 2D 9L from 14 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valour's season.
Attack vs Defence
Atlético Ottawa are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Valour are on 1.36 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Valour in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atlético Ottawa
Current Season
Valour
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Valour in coming into this match?
Atlético Ottawa have gone 6W 8D 14L in their last 28 games (0.93 PPG), while Valour have gone 10W 5D 13L in their last 28 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atlético Ottawa at home or Valour away?
Atlético Ottawa's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atlético Ottawa at home: 1.00 PPG; Valour away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Atlético Ottawa or Valour been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atlético Ottawa have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Valour in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atlético Ottawa won 5-2 on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atlético Ottawa have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valour — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Atlético Ottawa
3
Draws
1
Valour
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Valour?
From 10 meetings on record, Atlético Ottawa have won 6, Valour have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Atlético Ottawa and Valour last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Valour 3-3 Atlético Ottawa.
Who has won more matches between Atlético Ottawa and Valour?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atlético Ottawa 64%, Valour 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Atlético Ottawa) and 57% (Valour).
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa have failed to score in 29% of games; Valour in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atlético Ottawa home games / Valour away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atlético Ottawa play Valour?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Atlético Ottawa's games and 57% of Valour's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atlético Ottawa vs Valour usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Atlético Ottawa's recent games and 57% of Valour's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atlético Ottawa and Valour tend to score early?
Atlético Ottawa have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Valour in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Valour run riot with a 1-6 hammering of Atlético Ottawa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valour beat Atlético Ottawa 1-6 at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 1.52 xG and Valour 0.93 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-6 for 7 actual goals. Valour outscored their 0.93 projection by 5.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 0.88 / defence 0.83 against Valour attack 1.18 / defence 1.10, drawn from 30/30 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 51% | Draw 26% | Valour 23%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Valour win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 43%, Valour 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Valour's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atlético Ottawa 0.93 PPG, Valour 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valour win broke the near-deadlock. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Valour (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.