Atlético Ottawa 2-2 Valour – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Atlético Ottawa (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Atlético Ottawa face Valour.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atlético Ottawa and Valour meet at TD Place Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 July 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Atlético Ottawa's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Atlético Ottawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at TD Place Stadium, Atlético Ottawa have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Valour have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valour, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Canadian Premier League this season, Valour have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Atlético Ottawa. A 0.80 PPG lead over Valour (1.80 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Atlético Ottawa have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Valour in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Atlético Ottawa lead 3W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Jun 2024, ended 2–0 with Atlético Ottawa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Atlético Ottawa half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Valour half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atlético Ottawa 50% versus Valour 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atlético Ottawa 43% | Valour 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atlético Ottawa 2.08 xG and Valour 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atlético Ottawa attack 1.140 / defence 1.093 | Valour attack 0.860 / defence 1.277. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.229. Valour bring a strong defensive rating of 1.277 — this is suppressing Atlético Ottawa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Atlético Ottawa games / 42 Valour games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 58% | Draw 23% | Valour 20%. Fair-value odds: Atlético Ottawa 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Valour 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Atlético Ottawa (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atlético Ottawa at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Atlético Ottawa 60% | Valour 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atlético Ottawa vs Valour | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: TD Place Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jul 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 58% | Draw 23% | Valour 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 61% | xG Atlético Ottawa 2.08 / Valour 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Atlético Ottawa attack 1.140 / def 1.093 | Valour attack 0.860 / def 1.277 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Atlético Ottawa xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Valour xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atlético Ottawa vs Valour kick off?
Atlético Ottawa vs Valour kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 21 July 2024 at TD Place Stadium.
What was the final score in Atlético Ottawa vs Valour?
Atlético Ottawa 2 - 2 Valour.
Where is Atlético Ottawa vs Valour being played?
The match is being played at TD Place Stadium.
What competition is Atlético Ottawa vs Valour part of?
Atlético Ottawa vs Valour is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Atlético Ottawa vs Valour?
Our statistical model gives Atlético Ottawa a 58% chance of winning, Valour a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atlético Ottawa vs Valour?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Atlético Ottawa and Valour will score (BTTS).
Will Atlético Ottawa vs Valour have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Valour?
Record (4 meetings): Atlético Ottawa 3W | Draws 0 | Valour 1W.
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Valour in?
Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Valour (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Atlético Ottawa's attack at 1.14x the league average against Valour's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 2.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Valour's attack (0.86x) against Atlético Ottawa's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
58%
1.73
23%
4.38
20%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Atlético Ottawa xG
Total xG
3.23
1.15
Valour xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
5.13
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
12%
8.01
Win to Nil
18%
5.50
2%
41.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atlético Ottawa vs Valour?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Atlético Ottawa and Valour expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Atlético Ottawa and 1.15 for Valour, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Atlético Ottawa vs Valour?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, Atlético Ottawa have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 18W 10D 14L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Atlético Ottawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valour's form line: 9W 9D 24L from 42 games, 0.86 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Valour is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Atlético Ottawa are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Valour.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Atlético Ottawa have posted 1.50 PPG from 22 outings (9W 6D 7L).
On the road, Valour have gone 3W 5D 14L from 22 away games — 0.64 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atlético Ottawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Atlético Ottawa are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Valour are on 0.90 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
Valour
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Valour in coming into this match?
Atlético Ottawa have gone 18W 10D 14L in their last 42 games (1.52 PPG), while Valour have gone 9W 9D 24L in their last 42 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atlético Ottawa at home or Valour away?
Atlético Ottawa's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atlético Ottawa at home: 1.50 PPG; Valour away: 0.64 PPG.
Have Atlético Ottawa or Valour been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atlético Ottawa have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Valour in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atlético Ottawa won 5-2 on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atlético Ottawa have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valour — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Atlético Ottawa
3
Draws
1
Valour
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Valour?
From 10 meetings on record, Atlético Ottawa have won 6, Valour have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Atlético Ottawa and Valour last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Valour 3-3 Atlético Ottawa.
Who has won more matches between Atlético Ottawa and Valour?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Valour see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atlético Ottawa 50%, Valour 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Atlético Ottawa) and 50% (Valour).
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Valour in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atlético Ottawa home games / Valour away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atlético Ottawa play Valour?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Atlético Ottawa's recent matches and 59% of Valour's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atlético Ottawa vs Valour usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Atlético Ottawa's recent games and 50% of Valour's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atlético Ottawa and Valour tend to score early?
Atlético Ottawa have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Valour in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atlético Ottawa and Valour share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 7, as Atlético Ottawa and Valour drew 2-2 in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 2.08 xG and Valour 1.15 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Valour outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 1.14 / defence 1.09 against Valour attack 0.86 / defence 1.28, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 58% | Draw 23% | Valour 20%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 43%, Valour 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (42 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Valour's trading profile (42 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Atlético Ottawa arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Valour (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.