Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Atlético Ottawa at 59% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
TD Place Stadium plays host to Atlético Ottawa versus Supra du Quebec in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. Kick-off: Sunday 20 September 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Atlético Ottawa (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atlético Ottawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atlético Ottawa at TD Place Stadium this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Atlético Ottawa are significantly better at TD Place Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Supra du Quebec have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Supra du Quebec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Supra du Quebec have gone 3W 2D 4L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.22 PPG). Away from home they average 1.78 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 89% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Atlético Ottawa's favour (1.70 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Atlético Ottawa have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Supra du Quebec in 89%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across 3 previous meetings, Atlético Ottawa are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2026, ended 2–1 with Atlético Ottawa winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Atlético Ottawa and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Atlético Ottawa — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Supra du Quebec — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 89% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Atlético Ottawa 74% and Supra du Quebec 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Atlético Ottawa 74% | Supra du Quebec 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atlético Ottawa 2.08 xG and Supra du Quebec 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atlético Ottawa attack 1.000 / defence 0.981 | Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.811 / away 1.267. Data: 28 Atlético Ottawa games / 0 Supra du Quebec games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 59% | Draw 24% | Supra du Quebec 17%. Fair-value odds: Atlético Ottawa 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Supra du Quebec 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Atlético Ottawa (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atlético Ottawa are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atlético Ottawa 60% | Supra du Quebec 89% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: TD Place Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 59% | Draw 24% | Supra du Quebec 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 59% | xG Atlético Ottawa 2.08 / Supra du Quebec 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Atlético Ottawa attack 1.000 / def 0.981 | Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.811 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Atlético Ottawa xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Supra du Quebec xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec kick off?
Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at TD Place Stadium.
Where is Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec being played?
The match is being played at TD Place Stadium.
What competition is Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec part of?
Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec?
Our statistical model gives Atlético Ottawa a 59% chance of winning, Supra du Quebec a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Atlético Ottawa and Supra du Quebec will score (BTTS).
Will Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Supra du Quebec?
Record (3 meetings): Atlético Ottawa 3W | Draws 0 | Supra du Quebec 0W.
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Supra du Quebec in?
Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Supra du Quebec (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Atlético Ottawa's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Supra du Quebec's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.08. Flip it around — Supra du Quebec's attack (0.85x) against Atlético Ottawa's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 28/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
59%
1.68
24%
4.23
17%
5.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Atlético Ottawa xG
Total xG
3.14
1.06
Supra du Quebec xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
5.90
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
12%
8.02
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
2%
47.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Atlético Ottawa and Supra du Quebec expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Atlético Ottawa and 1.06 for Supra du Quebec, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Atlético Ottawa's recent record stands at 10W 4D 5L from 19 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Atlético Ottawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Supra du Quebec, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 9L across 19 games — 1.16 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Supra du Quebec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Atlético Ottawa by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Supra du Quebec heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Atlético Ottawa have managed 6W 2D 1L from 9 games — 2.22 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.79 PPG overall — Atlético Ottawa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Supra du Quebec's away record stands at 3W 2D 4L across 9 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atlético Ottawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atlético Ottawa are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Supra du Quebec are on 1.42 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atlético Ottawa have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Supra du Quebec in 79%.
Last 19 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
Supra du Quebec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Supra du Quebec in coming into this match?
Atlético Ottawa have gone 10W 4D 5L in their last 19 games (1.79 PPG), while Supra du Quebec have gone 6W 4D 9L in their last 19 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atlético Ottawa at home or Supra du Quebec away?
Atlético Ottawa's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atlético Ottawa at home: 2.22 PPG; Supra du Quebec away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since April 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Atlético Ottawa go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Last 3 Meetings
3
Atlético Ottawa
0
Draws
0
Supra du Quebec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Supra du Quebec?
From 3 meetings on record, Atlético Ottawa have won 3, Supra du Quebec have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Atlético Ottawa and Supra du Quebec last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Supra du Quebec 1-2 Atlético Ottawa.
Who has won more matches between Atlético Ottawa and Supra du Quebec?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Supra du Quebec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Atlético Ottawa, 89% for Supra du Quebec — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Atlético Ottawa and 67% for Supra du Quebec. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atlético Ottawa home games / Supra du Quebec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atlético Ottawa play Supra du Quebec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Atlético Ottawa's games and 89% of Supra du Quebec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Atlético Ottawa's matches and 67% of Supra du Quebec's.
Do Atlético Ottawa and Supra du Quebec tend to score early?
Atlético Ottawa have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Supra du Quebec in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.