Atlético Ottawa 5-3 Supra du Quebec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atlético Ottawa at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
TD Place Stadium plays host to Atlético Ottawa versus Supra du Quebec in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. Kick-off: Tuesday 9 June 2026 at 23:00 UTC.
Form
Atlético Ottawa (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Atlético Ottawa at TD Place Stadium this season: 5W 5D 0L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at TD Place Stadium.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Atlético Ottawa 1W, Supra du Quebec 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Atlético Ottawa winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atlético Ottawa 2.08 xG and Supra du Quebec 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.999 / defence 0.958 | Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.268. Data: 28 Atlético Ottawa games / 0 Supra du Quebec games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 60% | Draw 24% | Supra du Quebec 16%. Fair-value odds: Atlético Ottawa 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Supra du Quebec 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Atlético Ottawa (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atlético Ottawa are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: TD Place Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 9 Jun 2026, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 60% | Draw 24% | Supra du Quebec 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 58% | xG Atlético Ottawa 2.08 / Supra du Quebec 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.999 / def 0.958 | Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.810 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Atlético Ottawa xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Supra du Quebec xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec kick off?
Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec kicked off at 23:00 on Tuesday 9 June 2026 at TD Place Stadium.
What was the final score in Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec?
Atlético Ottawa 5 - 3 Supra du Quebec.
Where is Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec being played?
The match is being played at TD Place Stadium.
What competition is Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec part of?
Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec?
Our statistical model gives Atlético Ottawa a 60% chance of winning, Supra du Quebec a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Atlético Ottawa and Supra du Quebec will score (BTTS).
Will Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Supra du Quebec?
Record (1 meetings): Atlético Ottawa 1W | Draws 0 | Supra du Quebec 0W.
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Supra du Quebec in?
Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Atlético Ottawa home split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Atlético Ottawa's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Supra du Quebec's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.08. Flip it around — Supra du Quebec's attack (0.85x) against Atlético Ottawa's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 28/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
60%
1.67
24%
4.24
16%
6.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Atlético Ottawa xG
Total xG
3.11
1.03
Supra du Quebec xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
6.08
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
12%
8.01
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
2%
48.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Atlético Ottawa and Supra du Quebec expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Atlético Ottawa and 1.03 for Supra du Quebec, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atlético Ottawa
Pre-Season
Supra du Quebec
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since April 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Atlético Ottawa go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Last 3 Meetings
3
Atlético Ottawa
0
Draws
0
Supra du Quebec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Supra du Quebec?
From 3 meetings on record, Atlético Ottawa have won 3, Supra du Quebec have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Atlético Ottawa and Supra du Quebec last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Supra du Quebec 1-2 Atlético Ottawa.
Who has won more matches between Atlético Ottawa and Supra du Quebec?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atlético Ottawa home games / Supra du Quebec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Atlético Ottawa cruise to a comfortable 5-3 victory over Supra du Quebec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atlético Ottawa beat Supra du Quebec 5-3 at TD Place Stadium, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 2.08 xG and Supra du Quebec 1.03 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 5-3 for 8 actual goals. Atlético Ottawa beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Supra du Quebec outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 1.00 / defence 0.96 against Supra du Quebec attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 28/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 60% | Draw 24% | Supra du Quebec 16%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.