Vitoria 4-0 Chapecoense-sc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vitoria at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Manoel Barradas plays host to Vitoria versus Chapecoense-sc in Serie A, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Wednesday 7 October 2026 at 23:00 UTC.
Current Form
Vitoria's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Vitoria at Estadio Manoel Barradas this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Manoel Barradas. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Vitoria are significantly better at Estadio Manoel Barradas than their overall form suggests.
Chapecoense-sc have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chapecoense-sc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chapecoense-sc's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Vitoria, 0.90 for Chapecoense-sc — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Vitoria 0W, Chapecoense-sc 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Vitoria half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Chapecoense-sc half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitoria 41% versus Chapecoense-sc 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitoria 41% | Chapecoense-sc 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitoria 1.36 xG and Chapecoense-sc 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitoria attack 0.800 / defence 1.035 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.853 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.180. Data: 66 Vitoria games / 27 Chapecoense-sc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitoria 42% | Draw 31% | Chapecoense-sc 27%. Fair-value odds: Vitoria 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Chapecoense-sc 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vitoria are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vitoria if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Vitoria 20% | Chapecoense-sc 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estadio Manoel Barradas • Kick-off: Wednesday 7 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitoria 42% | Draw 31% | Chapecoense-sc 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Vitoria 1.36 / Chapecoense-sc 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Vitoria attack 0.800 / def 1.035 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.853 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Vitoria (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Vitoria xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Chapecoense-sc xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc kick off?
Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 7 October 2026 at Estadio Manoel Barradas.
What was the final score in Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc?
Vitoria 4 - 0 Chapecoense-sc.
Where is Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Manoel Barradas.
What competition is Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc part of?
Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our statistical model gives Vitoria a 42% chance of winning, Chapecoense-sc a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Vitoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Vitoria and Chapecoense-sc will score (BTTS).
Will Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitoria and Chapecoense-sc?
Record (1 meetings): Vitoria 0W | Draws 1 | Chapecoense-sc 0W.
What form are Vitoria and Chapecoense-sc in?
Vitoria (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Chapecoense-sc (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Vitoria's attack rating (0.80) and Chapecoense-sc's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chapecoense-sc's attack (0.85x) against Vitoria's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 66/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitoria Win
42%
2.39
31%
3.18
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Vitoria xG
Total xG
2.40
1.04
Chapecoense-sc xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
7%
14.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.8 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Vitoria and Chapecoense-sc expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Vitoria and 1.04 for Chapecoense-sc, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 27 outings, Vitoria have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 8W 6D 13L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Vitoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chapecoense-sc's form line: 3W 9D 15L from 27 games, 0.67 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D. The sample for Chapecoense-sc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Vitoria are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chapecoense-sc.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Vitoria have posted 1.92 PPG from 13 outings (8W 1D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Vitoria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Chapecoense-sc have gone 1W 3D 9L from 13 away games — 0.46 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vitoria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Vitoria are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Chapecoense-sc are on 1.07 scored and 1.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chapecoense-sc in 67%.
Last 27 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitoria
Blended
Chapecoense-sc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitoria and Chapecoense-sc in coming into this match?
Vitoria have gone 8W 6D 13L in their last 27 games (1.11 PPG), while Chapecoense-sc have gone 3W 9D 15L in their last 27 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitoria at home or Chapecoense-sc away?
Vitoria's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitoria at home: 1.92 PPG; Chapecoense-sc away: 0.46 PPG.
Have Vitoria or Chapecoense-sc been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vitoria have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Chapecoense-sc in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 7 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Vitoria
1
Draws
0
Chapecoense-sc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitoria and Chapecoense-sc?
From 2 meetings on record, Vitoria have won 1, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vitoria and Chapecoense-sc last play each other?
They last met on 7 October 2026, when Vitoria 4-0 Chapecoense-sc.
Who has won more matches between Vitoria and Chapecoense-sc?
Vitoria have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vitoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Chapecoense-sc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitoria 23%, Chapecoense-sc 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Vitoria) and 46% (Chapecoense-sc).
On the defensive side: Vitoria keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Chapecoense-sc in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitoria home games / Chapecoense-sc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitoria play Chapecoense-sc?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 23% of Vitoria's recent matches and 62% of Chapecoense-sc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Vitoria's recent games and 46% of Chapecoense-sc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vitoria and Chapecoense-sc tend to score early?
Vitoria have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Chapecoense-sc in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Vitoria run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Chapecoense-sc.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitoria beat Chapecoense-sc 4-0 at Estadio Manoel Barradas, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitoria 1.36 xG and Chapecoense-sc 1.04 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Vitoria beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Chapecoense-sc landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitoria attack 0.80 / defence 1.03 against Chapecoense-sc attack 0.85 / defence 1.18, drawn from 66/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitoria 42% | Draw 31% | Chapecoense-sc 27%, with Vitoria to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitoria 41%, Chapecoense-sc 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitoria's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Chapecoense-sc's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Vitoria arrived the stronger side — 1.11 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Vitoria (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Chapecoense-sc (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.