Vasco DA Gama 2-1 Sao Paulo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Vasco DA Gama at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasco DA Gama vs Sao Paulo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 12 as Vasco DA Gama welcome Sao Paulo to Estádio São Januário. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 April 2026 at 21:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Vasco DA Gama have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Estádio São Januário, Vasco DA Gama have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Vasco DA Gama are significantly better at Estádio São Januário than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sao Paulo stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Sao Paulo have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Vasco DA Gama) versus 1.30 (Sao Paulo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Vasco DA Gama have won 2, Sao Paulo 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 0–2 with Sao Paulo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Vasco DA Gama in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Sao Paulo in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasco DA Gama 49% versus Sao Paulo 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasco DA Gama 53% | Sao Paulo 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasco DA Gama 1.49 xG and Sao Paulo 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.063 / defence 1.192 | Sao Paulo attack 0.899 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.017. Data: 49 Vasco DA Gama games / 49 Sao Paulo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 46% | Draw 28% | Sao Paulo 27%. Fair-value odds: Vasco DA Gama 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Sao Paulo 3.70. Vasco DA Gama hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vasco DA Gama are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasco DA Gama offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Vasco DA Gama 60% | Sao Paulo 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasco DA Gama vs Sao Paulo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estádio São Januário • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 46% | Draw 28% | Sao Paulo 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Vasco DA Gama 1.49 / Sao Paulo 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.063 / def 1.192 | Sao Paulo attack 0.899 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.017 • Poisson stance: Vasco DA Gama (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Vasco DA Gama xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Sao Paulo xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasco DA Gama vs Sao Paulo kick off?
Vasco DA Gama vs Sao Paulo kicked off at 21:30 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Estádio São Januário.
What was the final score in Vasco DA Gama vs Sao Paulo?
Vasco DA Gama 2 - 1 Sao Paulo.
Where is Vasco DA Gama vs Sao Paulo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio São Januário.
What competition is Vasco DA Gama vs Sao Paulo part of?
Vasco DA Gama vs Sao Paulo is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vasco DA Gama vs Sao Paulo?
Our statistical model gives Vasco DA Gama a 46% chance of winning, Sao Paulo a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Vasco DA Gama the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Sao Paulo?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Vasco DA Gama and Sao Paulo will score (BTTS).
Will Vasco DA Gama vs Sao Paulo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Sao Paulo?
Record (6 meetings): Vasco DA Gama 2W | Draws 1 | Sao Paulo 3W.
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Sao Paulo in?
Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Sao Paulo (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Vasco DA Gama's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Sao Paulo's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Sao Paulo's attack versus Vasco DA Gama's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasco DA Gama Win
46%
2.19
28%
3.63
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Vasco DA Gama xG
Total xG
2.58
1.09
Sao Paulo xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
15%
6.52
6%
16.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.3 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs Sao Paulo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Vasco DA Gama and Sao Paulo expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.09 for Sao Paulo, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasco DA Gama vs Sao Paulo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vasco DA Gama come into this having played 76 games, going 27W 14D 35L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Sao Paulo sit at 1.45 PPG from 76 outings (31W 17D 28L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vasco DA Gama on 1.25 PPG, Sao Paulo on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Vasco DA Gama's home form reads 18W 9D 11L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.66 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Vasco DA Gama are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sao Paulo have taken 0.97 points per game from 38 outings (9W 10D 19L). That's a step down from their 1.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sao Paulo's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasco DA Gama come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vasco DA Gama are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Sao Paulo are on 1.26 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
Sao Paulo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Sao Paulo in coming into this match?
Vasco DA Gama have gone 27W 14D 35L in their last 76 games (1.25 PPG), while Sao Paulo have gone 31W 17D 28L in their last 76 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasco DA Gama at home or Sao Paulo away?
Vasco DA Gama's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasco DA Gama at home: 1.66 PPG; Sao Paulo away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Vasco DA Gama or Sao Paulo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasco DA Gama have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Sao Paulo in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vasco DA Gama and Sao Paulo runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Jun 2024, when Vasco DA Gama won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vasco DA Gama's record when hosting Sao Paulo specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Vasco DA Gama
1
Draws
3
Sao Paulo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Sao Paulo?
From 7 meetings on record, Vasco DA Gama have won 3, Sao Paulo have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasco DA Gama and Sao Paulo last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Vasco DA Gama 2-1 Sao Paulo.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Sao Paulo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasco DA Gama 53%, Sao Paulo 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Vasco DA Gama) and 50% (Sao Paulo).
On the defensive side: Vasco DA Gama have failed to score in 26% of games; Sao Paulo in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasco DA Gama home games / Sao Paulo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasco DA Gama play Sao Paulo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Vasco DA Gama's recent matches and 47% of Sao Paulo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasco DA Gama vs Sao Paulo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Vasco DA Gama's recent games and 50% of Sao Paulo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasco DA Gama and Sao Paulo tend to score early?
Vasco DA Gama have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Sao Paulo in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Vasco DA Gama edge out Sao Paulo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasco DA Gama beat Sao Paulo 2-1 at Estádio São Januário, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.49 xG and Sao Paulo 1.09 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 1.06 / defence 1.19 against Sao Paulo attack 0.90 / defence 0.95, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 46% | Draw 28% | Sao Paulo 27%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 53%, Sao Paulo 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Sao Paulo's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasco DA Gama 1.25 PPG, Sao Paulo 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasco DA Gama win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.