Vasco DA Gama 0-2 Mirassol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasco DA Gama at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vasco DA Gama host Mirassol at Estádio São Januário in Serie A, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 2 December 2025 at 22:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Vasco DA Gama — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Vasco DA Gama's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Estádio São Januário this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mirassol stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Mirassol away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Mirassol are 0.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Vasco DA Gama have won 0, Mirassol 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2025, ended 2–3 with Mirassol winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Vasco DA Gama trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Mirassol trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasco DA Gama 50% versus Mirassol 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasco DA Gama 56% | Mirassol 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasco DA Gama 1.80 xG and Mirassol 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.210 / defence 1.352 | Mirassol attack 0.862 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 0.997. Data: 74 Vasco DA Gama games / 36 Mirassol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 52% | Draw 23% | Mirassol 25%. Fair-value odds: Vasco DA Gama 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Mirassol 4.00. Vasco DA Gama hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vasco DA Gama as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mirassol (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasco DA Gama offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vasco DA Gama 70% | Mirassol 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Estádio São Januário • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Dec 2025, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 52% | Draw 23% | Mirassol 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Vasco DA Gama 1.80 / Mirassol 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.210 / def 1.352 | Mirassol attack 0.862 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.495 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Vasco DA Gama (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Vasco DA Gama xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Mirassol xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol kick off?
Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol kicked off at 22:00 on Tuesday 2 December 2025 at Estádio São Januário.
What was the final score in Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol?
Vasco DA Gama 0 - 2 Mirassol.
Where is Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol being played?
The match is being played at Estádio São Januário.
What competition is Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol part of?
Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol?
Our statistical model gives Vasco DA Gama a 52% chance of winning, Mirassol a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Vasco DA Gama the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Vasco DA Gama and Mirassol will score (BTTS).
Will Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Mirassol?
Record (1 meetings): Vasco DA Gama 0W | Draws 0 | Mirassol 1W.
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Mirassol in?
Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Mirassol (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Vasco DA Gama's attack rating (1.21) and Mirassol's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mirassol's attack versus Vasco DA Gama's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasco DA Gama Win
52%
1.91
23%
4.32
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Vasco DA Gama xG
Total xG
2.96
1.16
Mirassol xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
17%
6.05
Win to Nil
16%
6.12
4%
24.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.8 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Vasco DA Gama and Mirassol expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.16 for Mirassol, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vasco DA Gama come into this having played 36 games, going 13W 6D 17L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, Mirassol sit at 1.75 PPG from 36 outings (17W 12D 7L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-L across their last five.
Mirassol carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Vasco DA Gama — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Vasco DA Gama's home form reads 8W 4D 6L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Mirassol have taken 1.17 points per game from 18 outings (5W 6D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mirassol's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Vasco DA Gama are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Mirassol are on 1.61 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
Mirassol
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Mirassol in coming into this match?
Vasco DA Gama have gone 13W 6D 17L in their last 36 games (1.25 PPG), while Mirassol have gone 17W 12D 7L in their last 36 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasco DA Gama at home or Mirassol away?
Vasco DA Gama's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasco DA Gama at home: 1.56 PPG; Mirassol away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Vasco DA Gama's record when hosting Mirassol specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Vasco DA Gama
1
Draws
3
Mirassol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Mirassol?
From 4 meetings on record, Vasco DA Gama have won 0, Mirassol have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasco DA Gama and Mirassol last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Vasco DA Gama 1-1 Mirassol.
Who has won more matches between Vasco DA Gama and Mirassol?
Mirassol have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasco DA Gama 56%, Mirassol 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Vasco DA Gama) and 33% (Mirassol).
On the defensive side: Vasco DA Gama have failed to score in 28% of games; Mirassol in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasco DA Gama home games / Mirassol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasco DA Gama play Mirassol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Vasco DA Gama's recent matches and 50% of Mirassol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Vasco DA Gama's recent games and 33% of Mirassol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasco DA Gama and Mirassol tend to score early?
Vasco DA Gama have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Mirassol in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mirassol cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Vasco DA Gama.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mirassol beat Vasco DA Gama 0-2 at Estádio São Januário, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.80 xG and Mirassol 1.16 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Vasco DA Gama fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Mirassol outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 1.21 / defence 1.35 against Mirassol attack 0.86 / defence 0.99, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 52% | Draw 23% | Mirassol 25%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Mirassol win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 56%, Mirassol 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mirassol's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Mirassol arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward. Mirassol (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.