Vasco DA Gama 1-1 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Botafogo at 47%, yet in-form Vasco DA Gama provide a compelling counter-argument — this Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vasco DA Gama host Botafogo at Estádio São Januário in Serie A (matchday 13). Kick-off is Saturday 29 June 2024 at 23:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Vasco DA Gama have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Vasco DA Gama have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Vasco DA Gama are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Botafogo — last 10 games: 0W 5D 5L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Botafogo's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Vasco DA Gama have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Vasco DA Gama have won 1, Botafogo 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 6 Nov 2023, ended Vasco DA Gama 1–0 Botafogo — a Vasco DA Gama win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Vasco DA Gama in-play and half-time data (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Botafogo in-play and half-time data (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasco DA Gama 50% versus Botafogo 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Vasco DA Gama 37% | Botafogo 42%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Vasco DA Gama surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Botafogo have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 57% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasco DA Gama 1.33 xG and Botafogo 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.080 / defence 1.437 | Botafogo attack 1.138 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.086. Vasco DA Gama's defence rating of 1.437 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Botafogo's projected output up. Data: built from Vasco DA Gama's last 50 games and Botafogo's last 50.
Result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 28% | Draw 26% | Botafogo 47%. Fair-value odds: Vasco DA Gama 3.60 | Draw 3.92 | Botafogo 2.14. Botafogo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.33 / 1.78) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Botafogo at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vasco DA Gama (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Botafogo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Vasco DA Gama 60% (last 10 home games) | Botafogo 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, matchday 13 | Venue: Estádio São Januário • Kick-off: Saturday 29 June 2024 at 23:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 28% | Draw 26% | Botafogo 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Vasco DA Gama 1.33 / Botafogo 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.080 / def 1.437 | Botafogo attack 1.138 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Vasco DA Gama xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Botafogo xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo FAQs
What time does Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo kick off?
Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo kicked off at 23:30 UK time on Saturday 29 June 2024 at Estádio São Januário.
What was the final score in Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo?
Vasco DA Gama 1 - 1 Botafogo.
Where is Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio São Januário.
What competition is Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo part of?
Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo is a Serie A fixture (matchday 13) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives Vasco DA Gama a 28% chance of winning, Botafogo a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Vasco DA Gama and Botafogo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Vasco DA Gama's attack rating (1.08) and Botafogo's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Botafogo's attack versus Vasco DA Gama's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Vasco DA Gama's last 50 games and Botafogo's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
28%
3.60
26%
3.92
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Vasco DA Gama xG
Total xG
3.11
1.78
Botafogo xG
3.60
28%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
17%
5.91
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
5%
21.28
12%
8.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.6 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Vasco DA Gama and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.78 for Botafogo, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vasco DA Gama come into this having played 38 games, going 12W 9D 17L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, Botafogo sit at 1.68 PPG from 38 outings (18W 10D 10L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-L across their last five.
Botafogo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Vasco DA Gama — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Vasco DA Gama's home form reads 9W 2D 8L across their last 19 home games, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Botafogo have taken 1.42 points per game from their last 19 away games (7W 6D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Vasco DA Gama are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Botafogo are on 1.53 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Botafogo in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
Botafogo
Current Season
Vasco DA Gama (Home) vs Botafogo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
Botafogo
Current Season
❓ Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo Form FAQs
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Botafogo in coming into this match?
Vasco DA Gama have gone 12W 9D 17L in their last 38 games (1.18 PPG), while Botafogo have gone 18W 10D 10L in their last 38 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasco DA Gama at home or Botafogo away?
Vasco DA Gama's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasco DA Gama at home: 1.53 PPG; Botafogo away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Vasco DA Gama or Botafogo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasco DA Gama have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Botafogo in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from July 2023. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 7 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Nov 2024, when Botafogo won Botafogo 3-0 Vasco DA Gama.
Vasco DA Gama's record when hosting Botafogo specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Vasco DA Gama
1
Draws
5
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Botafogo?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Vasco DA Gama have won 2, Botafogo have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Vasco DA Gama and Botafogo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 October 2026: Botafogo 1-2 Vasco DA Gama.
Who has won more matches between Vasco DA Gama and Botafogo?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasco DA Gama 42%, Botafogo 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Vasco DA Gama) and 42% (Botafogo).
On the defensive side: Vasco DA Gama keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Botafogo in 32%; Vasco DA Gama have failed to score in 32% of games; Botafogo in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasco DA Gama home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Vasco DA Gama and Botafogo matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Vasco DA Gama's recent matches and 47% of Botafogo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Vasco DA Gama and Botafogo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Vasco DA Gama's recent games and 42% of Botafogo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasco DA Gama and Botafogo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Vasco DA Gama's recent matches and 63% of Botafogo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vasco DA Gama and Botafogo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio São Januário, Regular Season - 13, as Vasco DA Gama and Botafogo drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.33 xG and Botafogo 1.78 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 1.08 / defence 1.44 against Botafogo attack 1.14 / defence 0.92, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 28% | Draw 26% | Botafogo 47%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 37%, Botafogo 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Botafogo's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.