Vasco DA Gama 0-1 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasco DA Gama at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Bahia travel to Estádio São Januário to take on Vasco DA Gama. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 2 May 2023, 00:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Bahia — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Bahia haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Bahia have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasco DA Gama 1.72 xG and Bahia 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasco DA Gama attack 0.970 / defence 1.235 | Bahia attack 0.821 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.119. Bahia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Vasco DA Gama's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Vasco DA Gama games / 2 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 51% | Draw 24% | Bahia 25%. Fair-value odds: Vasco DA Gama 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Bahia 4.00. Vasco DA Gama hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vasco DA Gama at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasco DA Gama offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estádio São Januário • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 May 2023, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 51% | Draw 24% | Bahia 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Vasco DA Gama 1.72 / Bahia 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Vasco DA Gama attack 0.970 / def 1.235 | Bahia attack 0.821 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.438 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Vasco DA Gama (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Vasco DA Gama xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Bahia xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia kick off?
Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia kicked off at 00:00 on Tuesday 2 May 2023 at Estádio São Januário.
What was the final score in Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia?
Vasco DA Gama 0 - 1 Bahia.
Where is Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio São Januário.
What competition is Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia part of?
Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Vasco DA Gama a 51% chance of winning, Bahia a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Vasco DA Gama the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Vasco DA Gama and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Bahia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Bahia in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Bahia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Vasco DA Gama's attack at 0.97x the league average against Bahia's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bahia's attack versus Vasco DA Gama's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 2/2 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasco DA Gama Win
51%
1.97
24%
4.10
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Vasco DA Gama xG
Total xG
2.85
1.14
Bahia xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
18%
5.56
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
4%
22.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.3 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Vasco DA Gama and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.14 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasco DA Gama
Pre-Season
Bahia
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vasco DA Gama and Bahia runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bahia have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Vasco DA Gama's record when hosting Bahia specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Vasco DA Gama
1
Draws
4
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Bahia?
From 7 meetings on record, Vasco DA Gama have won 2, Bahia have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasco DA Gama and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2026, when Vasco DA Gama 0-1 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Vasco DA Gama and Bahia?
Bahia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasco DA Gama home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Bahia defy the odds to beat Vasco DA Gama 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bahia beat Vasco DA Gama 0-1 at Estádio São Januário, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.72 xG and Bahia 1.14 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vasco DA Gama fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 0.97 / defence 1.24 against Bahia attack 0.82 / defence 1.23, drawn from 2/2 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 51% | Draw 24% | Bahia 25%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Bahia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.