Sport Recife 3-1 Juventude – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 44% as Sport Recife take on Juventude.
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Match Analysis
Sport Recife host Juventude at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco in Serie A, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 6 October 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sport Recife stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Sport Recife, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco, Sport Recife have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Juventude — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Juventude, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juventude away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sport Recife at 0.90 PPG versus Juventude's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Sport Recife have won 0, Juventude 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Jun 2021, ended 0–1 with Juventude winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Sport Recife in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 9% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 9% of games (home games); they fail to score in 65% of games.
Juventude in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sport Recife 22% versus Juventude 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sport Recife 22% | Juventude 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sport Recife 0.47 xG and Juventude 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sport Recife attack 0.446 / defence 0.934 | Juventude attack 0.746 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 0.891 / away 1.050. Sport Recife's attack strength of 0.446 is below the league average — the 0.47 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 23 Sport Recife games / 23 Juventude games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sport Recife 20% | Draw 44% | Juventude 36%. Fair-value odds: Sport Recife 5.00 | Draw 2.27 | Juventude 2.78. The draw (44%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 12% | BTTS probability 21% | Total xG 1.20. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 88% probability — total xG of 1.20 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 79% — Sport Recife's lower xG of 0.47 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 21%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 44% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 20% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 12% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 21%. Form rates corroborate: Sport Recife 10% | Juventude 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sport Recife vs Juventude | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Itaipava Arena Pernambuco • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 Oct 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sport Recife 20% | Draw 44% | Juventude 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 12% | BTTS 21% | xG Sport Recife 0.47 / Juventude 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Sport Recife attack 0.446 / def 0.934 | Juventude attack 0.746 / def 1.182 | league avg home 0.891 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Draw (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.47
Sport Recife xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Juventude xG
21%
BTTS
35%
Over 1.5
12%
Over 2.5
3%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sport Recife vs Juventude kick off?
Sport Recife vs Juventude kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 6 October 2021 at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco.
What was the final score in Sport Recife vs Juventude?
Sport Recife 3 - 1 Juventude.
Where is Sport Recife vs Juventude being played?
The match is being played at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco.
What competition is Sport Recife vs Juventude part of?
Sport Recife vs Juventude is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sport Recife vs Juventude?
Our statistical model gives Sport Recife a 20% chance of winning, Juventude a 36% chance, and a 44% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs Juventude?
Our model estimates a 21% probability that both Sport Recife and Juventude will score (BTTS).
Will Sport Recife vs Juventude have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 12%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Juventude?
Record (1 meetings): Sport Recife 0W | Draws 0 | Juventude 1W.
What form are Sport Recife and Juventude in?
Sport Recife (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Juventude (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sport Recife's attack rating (0.45) and Juventude's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 0.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Juventude's attack versus Sport Recife's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 31.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (20.7%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 65% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
20%
5.12
44%
2.25
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
30.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
22.0%
Away win
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.47
Sport Recife xG
Total xG
1.20
0.73
Juventude xG
5.12
20%
Home win
2.25
44%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
34%
Over 1.5
2.94
66%
Under 1.5
1.52
12%
Over 2.5
8.33
88%
Under 2.5
1.14
3%
Over 3.5
33.33
97%
Under 3.5
1.03
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
21%
BTTS Yes
4.76
79%
BTTS No
1.27
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
63%
1.60
Win to Nil
9%
10.64
23%
4.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 30.1 | 22.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 10.3 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sport Recife vs Juventude?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 31.4%.
How many goals are Sport Recife and Juventude expected to score?
The model projects 0.47 expected goals for Sport Recife and 0.73 for Juventude, a combined total of 1.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Sport Recife vs Juventude?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sport Recife come into this having played 23 games, going 4W 8D 11L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W. The sample for Sport Recife is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Juventude sit at 1.17 PPG from 23 outings (6W 9D 8L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Juventude is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sport Recife on 0.87 PPG, Juventude on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sport Recife's home form reads 1W 4D 6L across 11 games on their own ground, a 0.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Juventude have taken 0.82 points per game from 11 outings (1W 6D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Sport Recife are averaging 0.43 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Juventude are on 0.96 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sport Recife have seen both teams score in 22% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sport Recife have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sport Recife
Blended
Juventude
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sport Recife and Juventude in coming into this match?
Sport Recife have gone 4W 8D 11L in their last 23 games (0.87 PPG), while Juventude have gone 6W 9D 8L in their last 23 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sport Recife at home or Juventude away?
Juventude's away record (0.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sport Recife at home: 0.64 PPG; Juventude away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Sport Recife or Juventude been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sport Recife have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Juventude in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sport Recife and Juventude runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Juventude go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Sport Recife's record when hosting Juventude specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Sport Recife
0
Draws
3
Juventude
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Juventude?
From 4 meetings on record, Sport Recife have won 1, Juventude have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sport Recife and Juventude last play each other?
They last met on 5 November 2025, when Sport Recife 0-2 Juventude.
Who has won more matches between Sport Recife and Juventude?
Juventude have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sport Recife are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Juventude see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sport Recife 9%, Juventude 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 9% for Sport Recife and 27% for Juventude.
On the defensive side: Sport Recife keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Sport Recife have failed to score in 82% of games; Juventude in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sport Recife home games / Juventude away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sport Recife play Juventude?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 9% of Sport Recife's recent matches and 64% of Juventude's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sport Recife vs Juventude usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 9% of Sport Recife's recent games and 27% of Juventude's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sport Recife and Juventude tend to score early?
Sport Recife have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Juventude in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sport Recife cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Juventude.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sport Recife beat Juventude 3-1 at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 0.47 xG and Juventude 0.73 xG, a combined 1.20. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sport Recife beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.45 / defence 0.93 against Juventude attack 0.75 / defence 1.18, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 20% | Draw 44% | Juventude 36%, with the draw its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Sport Recife win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 12%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 35% and landed. Over 3.5 was 3% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 21% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 28% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sport Recife 22%, Juventude 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sport Recife's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Juventude's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sport Recife 0.87 PPG, Juventude 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sport Recife win broke the near-deadlock. Sport Recife (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.18 average — above their attacking norm. Juventude (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.