Sport Recife 0-1 Internacional – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Internacional at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sport Recife vs Internacional fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho plays host to Sport Recife versus Internacional in Serie A, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Tuesday 14 September 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sport Recife have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Sport Recife, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Sport Recife have gone 1W 4D 4L this season (9 games, 0.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.22 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho. At home, both teams have scored in only 11% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Internacional's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Internacional, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Internacional's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Sport Recife 0W, Internacional 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 May 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Sport Recife goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 11% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Internacional goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sport Recife 17% versus Internacional 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sport Recife 11% | Internacional 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sport Recife 0.53 xG and Internacional 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sport Recife attack 0.500 / defence 0.865 | Internacional attack 0.985 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 0.875 / away 1.084. Sport Recife's attack strength of 0.500 is below the league average — the 0.53 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Internacional bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing Sport Recife's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Sport Recife games / 18 Internacional games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sport Recife 19% | Draw 40% | Internacional 42%. Fair-value odds: Sport Recife 5.26 | Draw 2.50 | Internacional 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 40% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 18% | BTTS probability 26% | Total xG 1.45. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 82% probability — total xG of 1.45 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 74% — Sport Recife's lower xG of 0.53 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 26%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Internacional are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 40% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Internacional if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 18% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 26% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sport Recife 11% | Internacional 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sport Recife vs Internacional | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 Sep 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sport Recife 19% | Draw 40% | Internacional 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 18% | BTTS 26% | xG Sport Recife 0.53 / Internacional 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Sport Recife attack 0.500 / def 0.865 | Internacional attack 0.985 / def 1.209 | league avg home 0.875 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Internacional (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.53
Sport Recife xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Internacional xG
26%
BTTS
44%
Over 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sport Recife vs Internacional kick off?
Sport Recife vs Internacional kicked off at 00:00 on Tuesday 14 September 2021 at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What was the final score in Sport Recife vs Internacional?
Sport Recife 0 - 1 Internacional.
Where is Sport Recife vs Internacional being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What competition is Sport Recife vs Internacional part of?
Sport Recife vs Internacional is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sport Recife vs Internacional?
Our statistical model gives Sport Recife a 19% chance of winning, Internacional a 42% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw — making Internacional the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs Internacional?
Our model estimates a 26% probability that both Sport Recife and Internacional will score (BTTS).
Will Sport Recife vs Internacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 18%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Internacional?
Record (1 meetings): Sport Recife 0W | Draws 1 | Internacional 0W.
What form are Sport Recife and Internacional in?
Sport Recife (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Internacional (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sport Recife's attacking strength (0.50x league average) is weighed against Internacional's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.53. Flip it around — Internacional's attack (0.98x) against Sport Recife's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 19/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 24.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (20.1%), 1-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 58% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Internacional Win
19%
5.37
40%
2.53
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
23.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
21.6%
Away win
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.53
Sport Recife xG
Total xG
1.45
0.92
Internacional xG
5.37
19%
Home win
2.53
40%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
43%
Over 1.5
2.33
57%
Under 1.5
1.75
18%
Over 2.5
5.56
82%
Under 2.5
1.22
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
26%
BTTS Yes
3.79
74%
BTTS No
1.36
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
59%
1.70
Win to Nil
7%
13.52
25%
4.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23.4 | 21.6 | 10.0 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 11.4 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sport Recife vs Internacional?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 24.9%.
How many goals are Sport Recife and Internacional expected to score?
The model projects 0.53 expected goals for Sport Recife and 0.92 for Internacional, a combined total of 1.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Sport Recife vs Internacional?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 18 outings, Sport Recife have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 3W 7D 8L record — D-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sport Recife is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Internacional's form line: 5W 8D 5L from 18 games, 1.28 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-D. The sample for Internacional is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.89 PPG for Sport Recife against 1.28 for Internacional. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sport Recife have posted 0.78 PPG from 9 outings (1W 4D 4L).
On the road, Internacional have gone 3W 5D 1L from 9 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Internacional come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sport Recife are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Internacional are on 1.22 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sport Recife have seen both teams score in 17% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sport Recife have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sport Recife
Blended
Internacional
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sport Recife and Internacional in coming into this match?
Sport Recife have gone 3W 7D 8L in their last 18 games (0.89 PPG), while Internacional have gone 5W 8D 5L in their last 18 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sport Recife at home or Internacional away?
Internacional's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sport Recife at home: 0.78 PPG; Internacional away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Sport Recife or Internacional been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sport Recife have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Internacional in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sport Recife have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Internacional — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sport Recife
2
Draws
2
Internacional
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Internacional?
From 4 meetings on record, Sport Recife have won 0, Internacional have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sport Recife and Internacional last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2025, when Internacional 2-0 Sport Recife.
Who has won more matches between Sport Recife and Internacional?
Internacional have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sport Recife see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Internacional are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 11% (Sport Recife) and 56% (Internacional) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 11% for Sport Recife and 44% for Internacional.
On the defensive side: Sport Recife keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Internacional in 44%; Sport Recife have failed to score in 78% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sport Recife home games / Internacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sport Recife play Internacional?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 11% of Sport Recife's recent matches and 56% of Internacional's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sport Recife vs Internacional usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 11% of Sport Recife's recent games and 44% of Internacional's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sport Recife and Internacional tend to score early?
Sport Recife have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Internacional in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Internacional edge out Sport Recife 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Internacional beat Sport Recife 0-1 at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 0.53 xG and Internacional 0.92 xG, a combined 1.45. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.50 / defence 0.86 against Internacional attack 0.98 / defence 1.21, drawn from 19/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 19% | Draw 40% | Internacional 42%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 18%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 44% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 26% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 28% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sport Recife 11%, Internacional 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sport Recife's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Internacional's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sport Recife 0.89 PPG, Internacional 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Internacional win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.