Sport Recife 1-0 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gremio at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sport Recife vs Gremio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 4 as Sport Recife welcome Gremio to Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho. Kick-off is set for Thursday 17 June 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sport Recife 1.00 xG and Gremio 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sport Recife attack 0.829 / defence 1.146 | Gremio attack 0.954 / defence 1.415. League average goals — home 0.851 / away 1.087. Gremio bring a strong defensive rating of 1.415 — this is suppressing Sport Recife's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Sport Recife games / 2 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sport Recife 31% | Draw 29% | Gremio 40%. Fair-value odds: Sport Recife 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Gremio 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gremio at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gremio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sport Recife vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho • Kick-off: Thursday 17 Jun 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sport Recife 31% | Draw 29% | Gremio 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Sport Recife 1.00 / Gremio 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Sport Recife attack 0.829 / def 1.146 | Gremio attack 0.954 / def 1.415 | league avg home 0.851 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Gremio (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Sport Recife xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Gremio xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sport Recife vs Gremio kick off?
Sport Recife vs Gremio kicked off at 23:00 on Thursday 17 June 2021 at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What was the final score in Sport Recife vs Gremio?
Sport Recife 1 - 0 Gremio.
Where is Sport Recife vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What competition is Sport Recife vs Gremio part of?
Sport Recife vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sport Recife vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Sport Recife a 31% chance of winning, Gremio a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gremio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sport Recife and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Sport Recife vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Gremio?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sport Recife and Gremio in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sport Recife's attack at 0.83x the league average against Gremio's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gremio's attack versus Sport Recife's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/2 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gremio Win
31%
3.26
29%
3.44
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Sport Recife xG
Total xG
2.19
1.19
Gremio xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
9%
10.72
15%
6.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 13.4 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sport Recife vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Sport Recife and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Sport Recife and 1.19 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Sport Recife vs Gremio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sport Recife
Pre-Season
Gremio
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Dec 2025, when Gremio won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sport Recife's record when hosting Gremio specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Sport Recife
0
Draws
1
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Gremio?
From 4 meetings on record, Sport Recife have won 3, Gremio have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sport Recife and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when Sport Recife 0-4 Gremio.
Who has won more matches between Sport Recife and Gremio?
Sport Recife have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sport Recife home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Sport Recife defy the odds to beat Gremio 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sport Recife beat Gremio 1-0 at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 1.00 xG and Gremio 1.19 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gremio landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.83 / defence 1.15 against Gremio attack 0.95 / defence 1.42, drawn from 3/2 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 31% | Draw 29% | Gremio 40%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Sport Recife win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.