Sport Recife 1-1 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sport Recife vs Flamengo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Flamengo make the trip to Itaipava Arena Pernambuco to face Sport Recife in Serie A, Regular Season - 35. The match kicks off on Friday 3 December 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Form
Sport Recife (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Sport Recife's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Sport Recife are significantly better at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco than their overall form suggests.
Flamengo have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Flamengo's form when playing away from home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Flamengo are 1.70 PPG clear of Sport Recife in recent Serie A fixtures (2.40 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Sport Recife, 1 for Flamengo and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with Flamengo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sport Recife — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
Flamengo — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sport Recife 26% versus Flamengo 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sport Recife 29% | Flamengo 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sport Recife 0.90 xG and Flamengo 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sport Recife attack 0.762 / defence 1.040 | Flamengo attack 1.599 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.002 / away 0.919. Sport Recife's attack strength of 0.762 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.599 — the away xG of 1.53 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 35 Sport Recife games / 35 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sport Recife 22% | Draw 26% | Flamengo 52%. Fair-value odds: Sport Recife 4.55 | Draw 3.85 | Flamengo 1.92. Flamengo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Flamengo at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Flamengo if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Sport Recife 20% | Flamengo 80%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sport Recife vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Itaipava Arena Pernambuco • Kick-off: Friday 3 Dec 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sport Recife 22% | Draw 26% | Flamengo 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 46% | xG Sport Recife 0.90 / Flamengo 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Sport Recife attack 0.762 / def 1.040 | Flamengo attack 1.599 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.002 / away 0.919 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Sport Recife xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Flamengo xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sport Recife vs Flamengo kick off?
Sport Recife vs Flamengo kicked off at 23:00 on Friday 3 December 2021 at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco.
What was the final score in Sport Recife vs Flamengo?
Sport Recife 1 - 1 Flamengo.
Where is Sport Recife vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco.
What competition is Sport Recife vs Flamengo part of?
Sport Recife vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sport Recife vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Sport Recife a 22% chance of winning, Flamengo a 52% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sport Recife and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Sport Recife vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Flamengo?
Record (1 meetings): Sport Recife 0W | Draws 0 | Flamengo 1W.
What form are Sport Recife and Flamengo in?
Sport Recife (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Flamengo (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sport Recife's attack at 0.76x the league average against Flamengo's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Flamengo's attack (1.60x) against Sport Recife's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.0%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
22%
4.54
26%
3.86
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Sport Recife xG
Total xG
2.42
1.53
Flamengo xG
4.54
22%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
22%
4.61
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
5%
20.91
21%
4.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 13.5 | 10.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sport Recife vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Sport Recife and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Sport Recife and 1.53 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Sport Recife vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sport Recife's recent record stands at 8W 9D 18L from 35 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Flamengo, meanwhile, have gone 21W 7D 7L across 35 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 1.06 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sport Recife heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sport Recife have managed 5W 5D 7L from 17 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Flamengo's away record stands at 8W 6D 3L across 17 trips, a 1.76 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sport Recife are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.94 scored and 0.91 conceded. Flamengo's attacking output running into Sport Recife's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Sport Recife have seen both teams score in 26% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sport Recife have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Flamengo in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sport Recife
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sport Recife and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Sport Recife have gone 8W 9D 18L in their last 35 games (0.94 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 21W 7D 7L in their last 35 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sport Recife at home or Flamengo away?
Flamengo's away record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sport Recife at home: 1.18 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.76 PPG.
Have Sport Recife or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sport Recife have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Flamengo in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Flamengo have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Flamengo won 1-5 on 15 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sport Recife have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Flamengo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sport Recife
1
Draws
3
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Flamengo?
From 4 meetings on record, Sport Recife have won 0, Flamengo have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sport Recife and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 15 November 2025, when Sport Recife 1-5 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Sport Recife and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sport Recife see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sport Recife 18%, Flamengo 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 18% (Sport Recife) and 71% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Sport Recife keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Sport Recife have failed to score in 59% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sport Recife home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sport Recife play Flamengo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 18% of Sport Recife's recent matches and 65% of Flamengo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sport Recife vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of Sport Recife's recent games and 71% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sport Recife and Flamengo tend to score early?
Sport Recife have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sport Recife and Flamengo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sport Recife and Flamengo finished level at 1-1 at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 0.90 xG and Flamengo 1.53 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.76 / defence 1.04 against Flamengo attack 1.60 / defence 1.17, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 22% | Draw 26% | Flamengo 52%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sport Recife 29%, Flamengo 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sport Recife's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Flamengo's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.