Sport Recife 0-0 Ceara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Sport Recife take on Ceara.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ceara make the trip to Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho to face Sport Recife in Serie A, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Monday 26 July 2021 at 00:30 UTC.
Form
Sport Recife (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sport Recife, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sport Recife have posted 1W 1D 3L at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ceara's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 6D 1L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Ceara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Ceara have posted 0W 5D 1L from 6 away outings — 0.83 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 0.83 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Ceara are 0.60 PPG clear of Sport Recife in recent Serie A fixtures (1.50 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Sport Recife goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Ceara goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sport Recife 33% versus Ceara 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sport Recife 25% | Ceara 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sport Recife 0.71 xG and Ceara 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sport Recife attack 0.680 / defence 1.047 | Ceara attack 0.649 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 0.917 / away 1.095. Sport Recife's attack strength of 0.680 is below the league average — the 0.71 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Sport Recife games / 12 Ceara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sport Recife 30% | Draw 37% | Ceara 32%. Fair-value odds: Sport Recife 3.33 | Draw 2.70 | Ceara 3.12. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 18% | BTTS probability 27% | Total xG 1.46. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 82% probability — total xG of 1.46 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 73% — Sport Recife's lower xG of 0.71 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 27%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 18% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 27% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sport Recife 20% | Ceara 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sport Recife vs Ceara | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho • Kick-off: Monday 26 Jul 2021, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sport Recife 30% | Draw 37% | Ceara 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 18% | BTTS 27% | xG Sport Recife 0.71 / Ceara 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Sport Recife attack 0.680 / def 1.047 | Ceara attack 0.649 / def 1.143 | league avg home 0.917 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Sport Recife xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Ceara xG
27%
BTTS
43%
Over 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sport Recife vs Ceara kick off?
Sport Recife vs Ceara kicked off at 00:30 on Monday 26 July 2021 at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What was the final score in Sport Recife vs Ceara?
Sport Recife 0 - 0 Ceara.
Where is Sport Recife vs Ceara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What competition is Sport Recife vs Ceara part of?
Sport Recife vs Ceara is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sport Recife vs Ceara?
Our statistical model gives Sport Recife a 30% chance of winning, Ceara a 32% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs Ceara?
Our model estimates a 27% probability that both Sport Recife and Ceara will score (BTTS).
Will Sport Recife vs Ceara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 18%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Ceara?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sport Recife and Ceara in?
Sport Recife (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Ceara (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sport Recife's attack rating (0.68) and Ceara's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 0.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ceara's attack (0.65x) against Sport Recife's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 24.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.7%), 1-0 (15.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 56% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.29
37%
2.67
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
23.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.3%
Away win
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Sport Recife xG
Total xG
1.46
0.74
Ceara xG
3.29
30%
Home win
2.67
37%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
43%
Over 1.5
2.33
57%
Under 1.5
1.75
18%
Over 2.5
5.56
82%
Under 2.5
1.22
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
27%
BTTS Yes
3.74
73%
BTTS No
1.37
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
49%
2.04
Win to Nil
14%
6.92
16%
6.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23.3 | 17.3 | 6.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 12.4 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sport Recife vs Ceara?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 24.9%.
How many goals are Sport Recife and Ceara expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Sport Recife and 0.74 for Ceara, a combined total of 1.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Sport Recife vs Ceara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sport Recife's recent record stands at 2W 4D 6L from 12 games, a 0.83 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Sport Recife is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ceara, meanwhile, have gone 4W 6D 2L across 12 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-W-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Ceara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ceara by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sport Recife heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sport Recife have managed 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ceara's away record stands at 0W 5D 0L across 5 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ceara's season.
Attack vs Defence
Sport Recife are averaging 0.58 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Ceara are on 1.17 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Ceara in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sport Recife
Blended
Ceara
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sport Recife and Ceara in coming into this match?
Sport Recife have gone 2W 4D 6L in their last 12 games (0.83 PPG), while Ceara have gone 4W 6D 2L in their last 12 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sport Recife at home or Ceara away?
Ceara's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sport Recife at home: 0.80 PPG; Ceara away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Sport Recife or Ceara been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sport Recife have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Ceara in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 16 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sport Recife have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ceara — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sport Recife
2
Draws
2
Ceara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Ceara?
From 4 meetings on record, Sport Recife have won 0, Ceara have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sport Recife and Ceara last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2025, when Sport Recife 1-1 Ceara.
Who has won more matches between Sport Recife and Ceara?
Ceara have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sport Recife are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ceara see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 20% (Sport Recife) and 40% (Ceara) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Sport Recife and 20% for Ceara.
On the defensive side: Sport Recife keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Ceara in 60%; Sport Recife have failed to score in 60% of games; Ceara in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sport Recife home games / Ceara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sport Recife play Ceara?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Sport Recife's recent matches and 40% of Ceara's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sport Recife vs Ceara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Sport Recife's recent games and 20% of Ceara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sport Recife and Ceara tend to score early?
Sport Recife have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Ceara in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sport Recife's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sport Recife and Ceara finished level at 0-0 at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 0.71 xG and Ceara 0.74 xG, a combined 1.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.68 / defence 1.05 against Ceara attack 0.65 / defence 1.14, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 30% | Draw 37% | Ceara 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 18%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 43% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 27% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sport Recife 25%, Ceara 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sport Recife's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ceara's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ceara arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sport Recife (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.