Sport Recife 0-0 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bahia at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sport Recife vs Bahia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Bahia travel to Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho to take on Sport Recife. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 August 2025, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sport Recife stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sport Recife, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sport Recife's home record at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho: 0W 3D 4L from 7 Serie A appearances (0.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Bahia have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Bahia have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Bahia's 2.20 PPG return is 1.80 points per game ahead of Sport Recife's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Sport Recife, 0 for Bahia and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 19 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Sport Recife winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Sport Recife in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Bahia in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sport Recife 47% versus Bahia 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sport Recife 47% | Bahia 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sport Recife 0.82 xG and Bahia 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sport Recife attack 0.714 / defence 1.389 | Bahia attack 1.057 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 0.933. Sport Recife's attack strength of 0.714 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 Sport Recife games / 53 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sport Recife 22% | Draw 28% | Bahia 50%. Fair-value odds: Sport Recife 4.55 | Draw 3.57 | Bahia 2.00. Bahia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bahia at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bahia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Sport Recife 43% | Bahia 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sport Recife vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Aug 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sport Recife 22% | Draw 28% | Bahia 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Sport Recife 0.82 / Bahia 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Sport Recife attack 0.714 / def 1.389 | Bahia attack 1.057 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.269 / away 0.933 • Poisson stance: Bahia (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Sport Recife xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Bahia xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sport Recife vs Bahia kick off?
Sport Recife vs Bahia kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 2 August 2025 at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What was the final score in Sport Recife vs Bahia?
Sport Recife 0 - 0 Bahia.
Where is Sport Recife vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What competition is Sport Recife vs Bahia part of?
Sport Recife vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sport Recife vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Sport Recife a 22% chance of winning, Bahia a 50% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Sport Recife and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Sport Recife vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Bahia?
Record (2 meetings): Sport Recife 2W | Draws 0 | Bahia 0W.
What form are Sport Recife and Bahia in?
Sport Recife (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Bahia (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sport Recife's attack at 0.71x the league average against Bahia's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bahia's attack versus Sport Recife's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
22%
4.51
28%
3.55
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Sport Recife xG
Total xG
2.19
1.37
Bahia xG
4.51
22%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
6%
17.74
22%
4.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 15.4 | 10.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sport Recife vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Sport Recife and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Sport Recife and 1.37 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Sport Recife vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sport Recife's recent record stands at 0W 5D 10L from 15 games, a 0.33 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Sport Recife is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bahia, meanwhile, have gone 8W 4D 3L across 15 games — 1.87 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bahia by 1.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sport Recife heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sport Recife have managed 0W 3D 4L from 7 games — 0.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bahia's away record stands at 2W 2D 3L across 7 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.87 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bahia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bahia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sport Recife are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.33 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Last 15 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sport Recife
Blended
Bahia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sport Recife and Bahia in coming into this match?
Sport Recife have gone 0W 5D 10L in their last 15 games (0.33 PPG), while Bahia have gone 8W 4D 3L in their last 15 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sport Recife at home or Bahia away?
Bahia's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sport Recife at home: 0.43 PPG; Bahia away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Sport Recife or Bahia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sport Recife have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Bahia in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sport Recife's record when hosting Bahia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sport Recife
1
Draws
1
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Bahia?
From 4 meetings on record, Sport Recife have won 2, Bahia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sport Recife and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 3 December 2025, when Bahia 2-0 Sport Recife.
Who has won more matches between Sport Recife and Bahia?
Sport Recife have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sport Recife are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sport Recife 43%, Bahia 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Sport Recife) and 43% (Bahia).
On the defensive side: Sport Recife have failed to score in 57% of games; Bahia in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sport Recife home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sport Recife play Bahia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Sport Recife's recent matches and 29% of Bahia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sport Recife vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Sport Recife's recent games and 43% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sport Recife and Bahia tend to score early?
Sport Recife have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Bahia in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sport Recife's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sport Recife and Bahia finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 0.82 xG and Bahia 1.37 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sport Recife fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Bahia landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.71 / defence 1.39 against Bahia attack 1.06 / defence 0.90, drawn from 15/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 22% | Draw 28% | Bahia 50%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sport Recife 47%, Bahia 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sport Recife's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bahia's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bahia arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sport Recife (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Bahia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.