Sport Recife 1-1 Atletico Paranaense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sport Recife at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sport Recife vs Atletico Paranaense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Atletico Paranaense travel to Itaipava Arena Pernambuco to take on Sport Recife. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 December 2021, 00:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Sport Recife — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco, Sport Recife have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Sport Recife are significantly better at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atletico Paranaense stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Atletico Paranaense's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sport Recife 1.00 PPG, Atletico Paranaense 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Sport Recife's 30% rate and Atletico Paranaense's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Sport Recife, 0 for Atletico Paranaense and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Sport Recife in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Atletico Paranaense in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sport Recife 27% versus Atletico Paranaense 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sport Recife 27% | Atletico Paranaense 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sport Recife 0.94 xG and Atletico Paranaense 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sport Recife attack 0.780 / defence 1.007 | Atletico Paranaense attack 0.757 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 0.988 / away 0.911. Sport Recife's attack strength of 0.780 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Atletico Paranaense bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing Sport Recife's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Sport Recife games / 37 Atletico Paranaense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sport Recife 40% | Draw 34% | Atletico Paranaense 26%. Fair-value odds: Sport Recife 2.50 | Draw 2.94 | Atletico Paranaense 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.63. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.63 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Atletico Paranaense's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sport Recife are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sport Recife offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.63 combined xG gives a 23% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 31% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sport Recife 30% | Atletico Paranaense 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sport Recife vs Atletico Paranaense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Itaipava Arena Pernambuco • Kick-off: Friday 10 Dec 2021, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sport Recife 40% | Draw 34% | Atletico Paranaense 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 31% | xG Sport Recife 0.94 / Atletico Paranaense 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Sport Recife attack 0.780 / def 1.007 | Atletico Paranaense attack 0.757 / def 1.221 | league avg home 0.988 / away 0.911 • Poisson stance: Sport Recife (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Sport Recife xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Atletico Paranaense xG
31%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sport Recife vs Atletico Paranaense kick off?
Sport Recife vs Atletico Paranaense kicked off at 00:30 on Friday 10 December 2021 at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco.
What was the final score in Sport Recife vs Atletico Paranaense?
Sport Recife 1 - 1 Atletico Paranaense.
Where is Sport Recife vs Atletico Paranaense being played?
The match is being played at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco.
What competition is Sport Recife vs Atletico Paranaense part of?
Sport Recife vs Atletico Paranaense is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sport Recife vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our statistical model gives Sport Recife a 40% chance of winning, Atletico Paranaense a 26% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Sport Recife the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Sport Recife and Atletico Paranaense will score (BTTS).
Will Sport Recife vs Atletico Paranaense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Atletico Paranaense?
Record (1 meetings): Sport Recife 0W | Draws 1 | Atletico Paranaense 0W.
What form are Sport Recife and Atletico Paranaense in?
Sport Recife (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sport Recife's attack rating (0.78) and Atletico Paranaense's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico Paranaense's attack versus Sport Recife's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 21.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.7%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sport Recife Win
40%
2.52
34%
2.90
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.3%
Home win
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Sport Recife xG
Total xG
1.63
0.69
Atletico Paranaense xG
2.52
40%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.28
69%
BTTS No
1.44
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
20%
5.04
10%
9.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.5 | 13.5 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.3 | 12.7 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sport Recife vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.2%.
How many goals are Sport Recife and Atletico Paranaense expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Sport Recife and 0.69 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined total of 1.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Sport Recife vs Atletico Paranaense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sport Recife come into this having played 37 games, going 9W 10D 18L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-W.
On the other side, Atletico Paranaense sit at 1.24 PPG from 37 outings (13W 7D 17L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sport Recife on 1.00 PPG, Atletico Paranaense on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sport Recife's home form reads 5W 6D 7L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Atletico Paranaense have taken 0.94 points per game from 18 outings (5W 2D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Sport Recife are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Atletico Paranaense are on 1.08 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sport Recife have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sport Recife have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sport Recife
Current Season
Atletico Paranaense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sport Recife and Atletico Paranaense in coming into this match?
Sport Recife have gone 9W 10D 18L in their last 37 games (1.00 PPG), while Atletico Paranaense have gone 13W 7D 17L in their last 37 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sport Recife at home or Atletico Paranaense away?
Sport Recife's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sport Recife at home: 1.17 PPG; Atletico Paranaense away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Sport Recife or Atletico Paranaense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sport Recife have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Atletico Paranaense in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sport Recife
2
Draws
0
Atletico Paranaense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Atletico Paranaense?
From 2 meetings on record, Sport Recife have won 0, Atletico Paranaense have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sport Recife and Atletico Paranaense last play each other?
They last met on 10 December 2021, when Sport Recife 1-1 Atletico Paranaense.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sport Recife see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Atletico Paranaense see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Sport Recife 22% BTTS, Atletico Paranaense 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Sport Recife and 44% for Atletico Paranaense.
On the defensive side: Sport Recife keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sport Recife have failed to score in 56% of games; Atletico Paranaense in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sport Recife home games / Atletico Paranaense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sport Recife play Atletico Paranaense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of Sport Recife's recent matches and 33% of Atletico Paranaense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sport Recife vs Atletico Paranaense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Sport Recife's recent games and 44% of Atletico Paranaense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Sport Recife and Atletico Paranaense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco, Regular Season - 38, as Sport Recife and Atletico Paranaense drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 0.94 xG and Atletico Paranaense 0.69 xG, a combined 1.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.78 / defence 1.01 against Atletico Paranaense attack 0.76 / defence 1.22, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 40% | Draw 34% | Atletico Paranaense 26%, with Sport Recife to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sport Recife 27%, Atletico Paranaense 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sport Recife's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sport Recife 1.00 PPG, Atletico Paranaense 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.