Sao Paulo 0-0 America Mineiro – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sao Paulo at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sao Paulo vs America Mineiro fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 19 as Sao Paulo welcome America Mineiro to Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo. Kick-off is set for Thursday 23 September 2021 at 00:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Sao Paulo — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sao Paulo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo, Sao Paulo have gone 3W 4D 2L this season (9 games, 1.44 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, America Mineiro stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for America Mineiro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
America Mineiro's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 4L across 9 road games this term (0.78 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.78 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Sao Paulo) versus 1.30 (America Mineiro). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Sao Paulo trading profile (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
America Mineiro trading profile (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sao Paulo 50% versus America Mineiro 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sao Paulo 35% | America Mineiro 15%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sao Paulo 1.28 xG and America Mineiro 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sao Paulo attack 0.990 / defence 1.071 | America Mineiro attack 0.811 / defence 1.494. League average goals — home 0.866 / away 1.066. America Mineiro bring a strong defensive rating of 1.494 — this is suppressing Sao Paulo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Sao Paulo games / 20 America Mineiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sao Paulo 43% | Draw 32% | America Mineiro 25%. Fair-value odds: Sao Paulo 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | America Mineiro 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sao Paulo as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sao Paulo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. This conflicts with form data: Sao Paulo 56% | America Mineiro 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sao Paulo vs America Mineiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo • Kick-off: Thursday 23 Sep 2021, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sao Paulo 43% | Draw 32% | America Mineiro 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Sao Paulo 1.28 / America Mineiro 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Sao Paulo attack 0.990 / def 1.071 | America Mineiro attack 0.811 / def 1.494 | league avg home 0.866 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: Sao Paulo (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Sao Paulo xG
Expected Goals
0.93
America Mineiro xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sao Paulo vs America Mineiro kick off?
Sao Paulo vs America Mineiro kicked off at 00:30 on Thursday 23 September 2021 at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo.
What was the final score in Sao Paulo vs America Mineiro?
Sao Paulo 0 - 0 America Mineiro.
Where is Sao Paulo vs America Mineiro being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo.
What competition is Sao Paulo vs America Mineiro part of?
Sao Paulo vs America Mineiro is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sao Paulo vs America Mineiro?
Our statistical model gives Sao Paulo a 43% chance of winning, America Mineiro a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sao Paulo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs America Mineiro?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Sao Paulo and America Mineiro will score (BTTS).
Will Sao Paulo vs America Mineiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and America Mineiro?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sao Paulo and America Mineiro in?
Sao Paulo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. America Mineiro (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sao Paulo's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against America Mineiro's defensive record (1.49x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, America Mineiro's attack versus Sao Paulo's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sao Paulo Win
43%
2.33
32%
3.14
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Sao Paulo xG
Total xG
2.21
0.93
America Mineiro xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
17%
5.88
7%
14.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 10.2 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.1 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sao Paulo vs America Mineiro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Sao Paulo and America Mineiro expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Sao Paulo and 0.93 for America Mineiro, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Sao Paulo vs America Mineiro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 20 outings, Sao Paulo have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 6W 7D 7L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sao Paulo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
America Mineiro's form line: 5W 7D 8L from 20 games, 1.10 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-D. The sample for America Mineiro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sao Paulo on 1.25 PPG, America Mineiro on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sao Paulo have posted 1.44 PPG from 9 outings (3W 4D 2L).
On the road, America Mineiro have gone 1W 4D 4L from 9 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sao Paulo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sao Paulo are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; America Mineiro are on 0.90 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 20 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sao Paulo
Blended
America Mineiro
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sao Paulo and America Mineiro in coming into this match?
Sao Paulo have gone 6W 7D 7L in their last 20 games (1.25 PPG), while America Mineiro have gone 5W 7D 8L in their last 20 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sao Paulo at home or America Mineiro away?
Sao Paulo's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sao Paulo at home: 1.44 PPG; America Mineiro away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Sao Paulo or America Mineiro been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sao Paulo have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, America Mineiro in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Apr 2023, when Sao Paulo won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sao Paulo's record when hosting America Mineiro specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Sao Paulo
1
Draws
2
America Mineiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and America Mineiro?
From 6 meetings on record, Sao Paulo have won 3, America Mineiro have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sao Paulo and America Mineiro last play each other?
They last met on 27 August 2023, when America Mineiro 2-1 Sao Paulo.
Who has won more matches between Sao Paulo and America Mineiro?
Sao Paulo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sao Paulo see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
America Mineiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sao Paulo 56%, America Mineiro 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Sao Paulo) and 33% (America Mineiro).
On the defensive side: Sao Paulo keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sao Paulo have failed to score in 33% of games; America Mineiro in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sao Paulo home games / America Mineiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sao Paulo play America Mineiro?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Sao Paulo's games and 67% of America Mineiro's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sao Paulo vs America Mineiro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Sao Paulo's recent games and 33% of America Mineiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sao Paulo and America Mineiro tend to score early?
Sao Paulo have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, America Mineiro in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sao Paulo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo, Regular Season - 19, as Sao Paulo and America Mineiro drew 0-0 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sao Paulo 1.28 xG and America Mineiro 0.93 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sao Paulo fell 1.3 short of their projected output. America Mineiro landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sao Paulo attack 0.99 / defence 1.07 against America Mineiro attack 0.81 / defence 1.49, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sao Paulo 43% | Draw 32% | America Mineiro 25%, with Sao Paulo to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sao Paulo 35%, America Mineiro 15%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sao Paulo's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
America Mineiro's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sao Paulo 1.25 PPG, America Mineiro 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. America Mineiro (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.