Santos 3-0 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Santos at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Santos vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bahia make the trip to Estádio Urbano Caldeira to face Santos in Serie A, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Wednesday 10 May 2023 at 23:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Santos have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Santos's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Estádio Urbano Caldeira this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Bahia's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Bahia haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Bahia have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Santos, 1.10 for Bahia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Santos lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Santos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Bahia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santos 47% versus Bahia 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santos 45% | Bahia 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santos 1.50 xG and Bahia 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santos attack 0.993 / defence 0.994 | Bahia attack 0.805 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.192. Data: 42 Santos games / 4 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santos 49% | Draw 27% | Bahia 24%. Fair-value odds: Santos 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Bahia 4.17. Santos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Santos as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Santos if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Santos 50% | Bahia 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santos vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estádio Urbano Caldeira • Kick-off: Wednesday 10 May 2023, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santos 49% | Draw 27% | Bahia 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Santos 1.50 / Bahia 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Santos attack 0.993 / def 0.994 | Bahia attack 0.805 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Santos (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Santos xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Bahia xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santos vs Bahia kick off?
Santos vs Bahia kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 10 May 2023 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
What was the final score in Santos vs Bahia?
Santos 3 - 0 Bahia.
Where is Santos vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
What competition is Santos vs Bahia part of?
Santos vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Santos vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Santos a 49% chance of winning, Bahia a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Santos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santos vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Santos and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Santos vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Bahia?
Record (2 meetings): Santos 0W | Draws 1 | Bahia 1W.
What form are Santos and Bahia in?
Santos (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Bahia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Santos's attack at 0.99x the league average against Bahia's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bahia's attack (0.81x) against Santos's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 42/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santos Win
49%
2.03
27%
3.67
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Santos xG
Total xG
2.45
0.95
Bahia xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
19%
5.27
5%
18.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.3 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santos vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Santos and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Santos and 0.95 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Santos vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Santos's recent record stands at 12W 11D 15L from 38 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Bahia, meanwhile, have gone 11W 10D 17L across 38 games — 1.13 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five. Bahia haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Santos against 1.13 for Bahia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Santos have managed 8W 5D 6L from 19 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bahia's away record stands at 3W 5D 11L across 19 trips, a 0.74 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Santos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Santos are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.11 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santos
Current Season
Bahia
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santos and Bahia in coming into this match?
Santos have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while Bahia have gone 11W 10D 17L in their last 38 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santos at home or Bahia away?
Santos's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santos at home: 1.53 PPG; Bahia away: 0.74 PPG.
Have Santos or Bahia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santos have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Bahia in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bahia won 3-0 on 30 May 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Santos have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Bahia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Santos
3
Draws
2
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Bahia?
From 7 meetings on record, Santos have won 2, Bahia have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Santos and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Bahia 2-2 Santos.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Santos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bahia see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santos 53%, Bahia 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Santos) and 42% (Bahia).
On the defensive side: Santos keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Bahia in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santos home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santos play Bahia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Santos's recent matches and 37% of Bahia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santos vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Santos's recent games and 42% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santos and Bahia tend to score early?
Santos have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Bahia in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Santos run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Bahia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santos beat Bahia 3-0 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 1.50 xG and Bahia 0.95 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Santos beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bahia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 0.99 / defence 0.99 against Bahia attack 0.81 / defence 1.03, drawn from 42/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santos 49% | Draw 27% | Bahia 24%, with Santos to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santos 45%, Bahia 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santos's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Bahia's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Santos 1.24 PPG, Bahia 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Santos win broke the near-deadlock. Santos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Bahia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.