Santos 0-2 America Mineiro – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Santos take on America Mineiro.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Santos host America Mineiro at Estádio Urbano Caldeira in Serie A, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 October 2021 at 21:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Santos stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Santos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santos at Estádio Urbano Caldeira this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Urbano Caldeira. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Santos are significantly better at Estádio Urbano Caldeira than their overall form suggests.
America Mineiro — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for America Mineiro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
America Mineiro's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour America Mineiro — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Santos have won 0, America Mineiro 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Jul 2021, ended 0–2 with America Mineiro winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Santos in-play tendencies (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
America Mineiro in-play tendencies (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santos 38% versus America Mineiro 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Santos 42% | America Mineiro 19%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santos 1.01 xG and America Mineiro 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santos attack 0.837 / defence 1.066 | America Mineiro attack 0.836 / defence 1.332. League average goals — home 0.908 / away 1.037. America Mineiro bring a strong defensive rating of 1.332 — this is suppressing Santos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Santos games / 27 America Mineiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santos 35% | Draw 35% | America Mineiro 30%. Fair-value odds: Santos 2.86 | Draw 2.86 | America Mineiro 3.33. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Santos 20% | America Mineiro 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santos vs America Mineiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estádio Urbano Caldeira • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santos 35% | Draw 35% | America Mineiro 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Santos 1.01 / America Mineiro 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Santos attack 0.837 / def 1.066 | America Mineiro attack 0.836 / def 1.332 | league avg home 0.908 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Santos xG
Expected Goals
0.92
America Mineiro xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santos vs America Mineiro kick off?
Santos vs America Mineiro kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
What was the final score in Santos vs America Mineiro?
Santos 0 - 2 America Mineiro.
Where is Santos vs America Mineiro being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
What competition is Santos vs America Mineiro part of?
Santos vs America Mineiro is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Santos vs America Mineiro?
Our statistical model gives Santos a 35% chance of winning, America Mineiro a 30% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Santos vs America Mineiro?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Santos and America Mineiro will score (BTTS).
Will Santos vs America Mineiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and America Mineiro?
Record (1 meetings): Santos 0W | Draws 0 | America Mineiro 1W.
What form are Santos and America Mineiro in?
Santos (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. America Mineiro (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Santos's attack rating (0.84) and America Mineiro's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, America Mineiro's attack versus Santos's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.89
35%
2.82
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Santos xG
Total xG
1.94
0.92
America Mineiro xG
2.89
35%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
14%
7.28
11%
9.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 13.3 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santos vs America Mineiro?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Santos and America Mineiro expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Santos and 0.92 for America Mineiro, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Santos vs America Mineiro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Santos come into this having played 26 games, going 6W 11D 9L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Santos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, America Mineiro sit at 1.23 PPG from 26 outings (7W 11D 8L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for America Mineiro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Santos on 1.12 PPG, America Mineiro on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Santos's home form reads 5W 5D 2L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Santos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, America Mineiro have taken 1.00 points per game from 12 outings (2W 6D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Santos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Santos are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; America Mineiro are on 0.96 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Santos have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santos
Blended
America Mineiro
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santos and America Mineiro in coming into this match?
Santos have gone 6W 11D 9L in their last 26 games (1.12 PPG), while America Mineiro have gone 7W 11D 8L in their last 26 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santos at home or America Mineiro away?
Santos's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santos at home: 1.67 PPG; America Mineiro away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Santos or America Mineiro been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santos have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, America Mineiro in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Santos and America Mineiro runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Apr 2022, when Santos won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Santos's record when hosting America Mineiro specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Santos
0
Draws
4
America Mineiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and America Mineiro?
From 6 meetings on record, Santos have won 2, America Mineiro have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Santos and America Mineiro last play each other?
They last met on 3 September 2023, when America Mineiro 2-0 Santos.
Who has won more matches between Santos and America Mineiro?
America Mineiro have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Santos see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
America Mineiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santos 25%, America Mineiro 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Santos and 33% for America Mineiro.
On the defensive side: Santos keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Santos have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santos home games / America Mineiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santos play America Mineiro?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Santos's recent matches and 67% of America Mineiro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santos vs America Mineiro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Santos's recent games and 33% of America Mineiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santos and America Mineiro tend to score early?
Santos have had a goal before half-time in 42% of their recent matches, America Mineiro in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
America Mineiro cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Santos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
America Mineiro beat Santos 0-2 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 1.01 xG and America Mineiro 0.92 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Santos fell 1.0 short of their projected output. America Mineiro outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 0.84 / defence 1.07 against America Mineiro attack 0.84 / defence 1.33, drawn from 26/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santos 35% | Draw 35% | America Mineiro 30%, with Santos to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual America Mineiro win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santos 42%, America Mineiro 19%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santos's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
America Mineiro's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Santos 1.12 PPG, America Mineiro 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the America Mineiro win broke the near-deadlock. Santos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. America Mineiro (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.