Remo 1-1 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Remo at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Remo vs Gremio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mangueirao plays host to Remo versus Gremio in Serie A, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Wednesday 7 October 2026 at 22:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Remo have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Remo's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Mangueirao this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Gremio (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Gremio have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.50 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Remo, 0 for Gremio and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Remo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Gremio goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Remo 61% versus Gremio 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Remo 54% | Gremio 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Remo 1.40 xG and Gremio 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Remo attack 0.853 / defence 1.180 | Gremio attack 0.750 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.180. Data: 28 Remo games / 66 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Remo 43% | Draw 31% | Gremio 26%. Fair-value odds: Remo 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Gremio 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Remo as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Remo if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Remo 60% | Gremio 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Remo vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Mangueirao • Kick-off: Wednesday 7 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Remo 43% | Draw 31% | Gremio 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Remo 1.40 / Gremio 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Remo attack 0.853 / def 1.180 | Gremio attack 0.750 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Remo (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Remo xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Gremio xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Remo vs Gremio kick off?
Remo vs Gremio kicked off at 22:30 on Wednesday 7 October 2026 at Mangueirao.
What was the final score in Remo vs Gremio?
Remo 1 - 1 Gremio.
Where is Remo vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Mangueirao.
What competition is Remo vs Gremio part of?
Remo vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Remo vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Remo a 43% chance of winning, Gremio a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Remo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Remo vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Remo and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Remo vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Remo and Gremio?
Record (1 meetings): Remo 0W | Draws 1 | Gremio 0W.
What form are Remo and Gremio in?
Remo (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Gremio (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Remo's attack rating (0.85) and Gremio's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gremio's attack (0.75x) against Remo's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 28/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Remo Win
43%
2.33
31%
3.22
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Remo xG
Total xG
2.44
1.04
Gremio xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
15%
6.62
6%
15.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.7 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Remo vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Remo and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Remo and 1.04 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Remo vs Gremio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Remo come into this having played 28 games, going 5W 8D 15L for 0.82 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Gremio sit at 1.04 PPG from 28 outings (7W 8D 13L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.82 PPG for Remo against 1.04 for Gremio. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Remo's home form reads 3W 5D 6L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Gremio have taken 0.29 points per game from 14 outings (0W 4D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gremio's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Remo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Remo are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 1.07 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Remo have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Remo
Current Season
Gremio
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Remo and Gremio in coming into this match?
Remo have gone 5W 8D 15L in their last 28 games (0.82 PPG), while Gremio have gone 7W 8D 13L in their last 28 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Remo at home or Gremio away?
Remo's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Remo at home: 1.00 PPG; Gremio away: 0.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 7 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Remo
2
Draws
0
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Remo and Gremio?
From 2 meetings on record, Remo have won 0, Gremio have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Remo and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 7 October 2026, when Remo 1-1 Gremio.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Remo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Gremio see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Remo 64%, Gremio 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Remo) and 43% (Gremio).
On the defensive side: Gremio in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Remo home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Remo play Gremio?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Remo's games and 50% of Gremio's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Remo vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Remo's recent games and 43% of Gremio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Remo and Gremio tend to score early?
Remo have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Gremio in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Remo and Gremio share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Remo and Gremio finished level at 1-1 at Mangueirao, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Remo 1.40 xG and Gremio 1.04 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Remo attack 0.85 / defence 1.18 against Gremio attack 0.75 / defence 1.14, drawn from 28/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Remo 43% | Draw 31% | Gremio 26%, with Remo to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Remo 54%, Gremio 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Remo's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Gremio's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Remo 0.82 PPG, Gremio 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.