RB Bragantino 2-1 Juventude – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RB Bragantino at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RB Bragantino vs Juventude encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid plays host to RB Bragantino versus Juventude in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 15 June 2024 at 22:30 UTC.
Current Form
RB Bragantino's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
RB Bragantino's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — RB Bragantino are significantly better at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid than their overall form suggests.
Juventude (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Juventude haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Juventude's away record: 0W 0D 10L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in RB Bragantino's favour (1.00 vs 0.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — RB Bragantino lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2022, ended 1–0 with RB Bragantino winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
RB Bragantino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Juventude goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 40% versus Juventude 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Bragantino 37% | Juventude 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.60 xG and Juventude 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 1.020 / defence 0.942 | Juventude attack 0.808 / defence 1.319. League average goals — home 1.193 / away 1.138. Juventude bring a strong defensive rating of 1.319 — this is suppressing RB Bragantino's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 RB Bragantino games / 7 Juventude games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 54% | Draw 26% | Juventude 20%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Juventude 5.00. RB Bragantino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates RB Bragantino as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: RB Bragantino 50% | Juventude 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Juventude | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jun 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 54% | Draw 26% | Juventude 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG RB Bragantino 1.60 / Juventude 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 1.020 / def 0.942 | Juventude attack 0.808 / def 1.319 | league avg home 1.193 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Juventude xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Juventude kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Juventude kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 15 June 2024 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Juventude?
RB Bragantino 2 - 1 Juventude.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Juventude being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Juventude part of?
RB Bragantino vs Juventude is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Juventude?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 54% chance of winning, Juventude a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Juventude?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both RB Bragantino and Juventude will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Juventude have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Juventude?
Record (4 meetings): RB Bragantino 1W | Draws 1 | Juventude 2W.
What form are RB Bragantino and Juventude in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Juventude (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
RB Bragantino's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Juventude's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. Flip it around — Juventude's attack (0.81x) against RB Bragantino's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 46/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
54%
1.85
26%
3.79
20%
5.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.47
0.87
Juventude xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
5.12
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
23%
4.40
4%
25.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 11.7 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.4 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Juventude?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Juventude expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 0.87 for Juventude, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Juventude?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
RB Bragantino's recent record stands at 17W 11D 10L from 38 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Juventude, meanwhile, have gone 3W 13D 22L across 38 games — 0.58 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. Juventude haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours RB Bragantino by 1.05 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Juventude heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, RB Bragantino have managed 11W 5D 3L from 19 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Juventude's away record stands at 1W 4D 14L across 19 trips, a 0.37 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Bragantino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Juventude are on 0.76 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Defensively: RB Bragantino have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Current Season
Juventude
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Bragantino and Juventude in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 17W 11D 10L in their last 38 games (1.63 PPG), while Juventude have gone 3W 13D 22L in their last 38 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Juventude away?
RB Bragantino's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 2.00 PPG; Juventude away: 0.37 PPG.
Have RB Bragantino or Juventude been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Bragantino have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Juventude in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 20 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RB Bragantino have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Juventude — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
RB Bragantino
2
Draws
3
Juventude
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Juventude?
From 8 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 3, Juventude have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Juventude last play each other?
They last met on 20 October 2025, when Juventude 1-0 RB Bragantino.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Bragantino 37%, Juventude 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (RB Bragantino) and 53% (Juventude).
On the defensive side: RB Bragantino keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Juventude in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Juventude away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Bragantino play Juventude?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of RB Bragantino's recent matches and 47% of Juventude's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RB Bragantino vs Juventude usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of RB Bragantino's recent games and 53% of Juventude's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RB Bragantino and Juventude tend to score early?
RB Bragantino have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Juventude in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RB Bragantino edge out Juventude 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino beat Juventude 2-1 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.60 xG and Juventude 0.87 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 1.02 / defence 0.94 against Juventude attack 0.81 / defence 1.32, drawn from 46/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 54% | Draw 26% | Juventude 20%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 37%, Juventude 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Juventude's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Bragantino arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 0.58. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.