RB Bragantino 2-2 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Bragantino at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this RB Bragantino vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fluminense make the trip to Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid to face RB Bragantino in Serie A, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Monday 14 June 2021 at 00:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.28 xG and Fluminense 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 1.220 / defence 1.400 | Fluminense attack 0.716 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.042 / away 1.070. Data: 2 RB Bragantino games / 2 Fluminense games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 41% | Draw 28% | Fluminense 31%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Fluminense 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, RB Bragantino are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid • Kick-off: Monday 14 Jun 2021, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 41% | Draw 28% | Fluminense 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG RB Bragantino 1.28 / Fluminense 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 1.220 / def 1.400 | Fluminense attack 0.716 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.042 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Fluminense xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Fluminense kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Fluminense kicked off at 00:30 on Monday 14 June 2021 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Fluminense?
RB Bragantino 2 - 2 Fluminense.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Fluminense part of?
RB Bragantino vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 41% chance of winning, Fluminense a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both RB Bragantino and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Fluminense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are RB Bragantino and Fluminense in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates RB Bragantino's attack at 1.22x the league average against Fluminense's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fluminense's attack (0.72x) against RB Bragantino's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
41%
2.43
28%
3.60
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.35
1.07
Fluminense xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
14%
7.10
9%
11.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.2 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 1.07 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Pre-Season
Fluminense
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RB Bragantino have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fluminense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
RB Bragantino
2
Draws
6
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Fluminense?
From 10 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 2, Fluminense have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2026, when Fluminense 1-1 RB Bragantino.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Fluminense?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
RB Bragantino and Fluminense share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, Regular Season - 3, as RB Bragantino and Fluminense drew 2-2 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.28 xG and Fluminense 1.07 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Fluminense outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 1.22 / defence 1.40 against Fluminense attack 0.72 / defence 1.01, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 41% | Draw 28% | Fluminense 31%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.