RB Bragantino 1-2 Chapecoense-sc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RB Bragantino at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chapecoense-sc make the trip to Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid to face RB Bragantino in Serie A, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 September 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Current Form
RB Bragantino's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for RB Bragantino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, RB Bragantino have gone 2W 6D 1L this season (9 games, 1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Chapecoense-sc (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chapecoense-sc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chapecoense-sc's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward RB Bragantino. A 1.10 PPG lead over Chapecoense-sc (1.40 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — RB Bragantino register both teams scoring in 78% of relevant games, Chapecoense-sc in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — RB Bragantino lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 May 2021, ended 3–0 with RB Bragantino winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
RB Bragantino half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 28% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Chapecoense-sc half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — RB Bragantino 61% and Chapecoense-sc 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Bragantino 56% | Chapecoense-sc 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.43 xG and Chapecoense-sc 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 1.123 / defence 1.305 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.824 / defence 1.445. League average goals — home 0.882 / away 1.071. Chapecoense-sc bring a strong defensive rating of 1.445 — this is suppressing RB Bragantino's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 RB Bragantino games / 19 Chapecoense-sc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 42% | Draw 29% | Chapecoense-sc 29%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Chapecoense-sc 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RB Bragantino at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: RB Bragantino 78% | Chapecoense-sc 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 42% | Draw 29% | Chapecoense-sc 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG RB Bragantino 1.43 / Chapecoense-sc 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 1.123 / def 1.305 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.824 / def 1.445 | league avg home 0.882 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Chapecoense-sc xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc?
RB Bragantino 1 - 2 Chapecoense-sc.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc part of?
RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 42% chance of winning, Chapecoense-sc a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both RB Bragantino and Chapecoense-sc will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Chapecoense-sc?
Record (1 meetings): RB Bragantino 1W | Draws 0 | Chapecoense-sc 0W.
What form are RB Bragantino and Chapecoense-sc in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Chapecoense-sc (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from RB Bragantino's attack rating (1.12) and Chapecoense-sc's defence rating (1.45), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chapecoense-sc's attack (0.82x) against RB Bragantino's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 18/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.2%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
42%
2.38
29%
3.44
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.58
1.15
Chapecoense-sc xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
13%
7.53
7%
14.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.5 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Chapecoense-sc expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 1.15 for Chapecoense-sc, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 18 outings, RB Bragantino have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 8W 8D 2L record — W-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for RB Bragantino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chapecoense-sc's form line: 0W 7D 11L from 18 games, 0.39 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-L. The sample for Chapecoense-sc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, RB Bragantino are the form team by 1.39 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chapecoense-sc.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, RB Bragantino have posted 1.33 PPG from 9 outings (2W 6D 1L). That actually lags their 1.78 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Chapecoense-sc have gone 0W 5D 4L from 9 away games — 0.56 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Bragantino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Chapecoense-sc are on 0.83 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RB Bragantino have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Chapecoense-sc in 67%.
Last 18 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Blended
Chapecoense-sc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Bragantino and Chapecoense-sc in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 8W 8D 2L in their last 18 games (1.78 PPG), while Chapecoense-sc have gone 0W 7D 11L in their last 18 (0.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Chapecoense-sc away?
RB Bragantino's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.33 PPG; Chapecoense-sc away: 0.56 PPG.
Have RB Bragantino or Chapecoense-sc been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Bragantino have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Chapecoense-sc in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: RB Bragantino won 0-3 on 30 May 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Last 3 Meetings
2
RB Bragantino
0
Draws
1
Chapecoense-sc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Chapecoense-sc?
From 3 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 2, Chapecoense-sc have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Chapecoense-sc last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Chapecoense-sc 1-2 RB Bragantino.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Chapecoense-sc?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Chapecoense-sc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for RB Bragantino, 78% for Chapecoense-sc — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (RB Bragantino) and 44% (Chapecoense-sc).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Chapecoense-sc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Bragantino play Chapecoense-sc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of RB Bragantino's games and 78% of Chapecoense-sc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of RB Bragantino's recent games and 44% of Chapecoense-sc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RB Bragantino and Chapecoense-sc tend to score early?
RB Bragantino have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Chapecoense-sc in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Chapecoense-sc defy the odds to beat RB Bragantino 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chapecoense-sc beat RB Bragantino 1-2 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.43 xG and Chapecoense-sc 1.15 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Chapecoense-sc outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 1.12 / defence 1.30 against Chapecoense-sc attack 0.82 / defence 1.45, drawn from 18/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 42% | Draw 29% | Chapecoense-sc 29%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Chapecoense-sc win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 56%, Chapecoense-sc 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Chapecoense-sc's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Bragantino arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.39. Form was overturned, with Chapecoense-sc winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Chapecoense-sc (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.