RB Bragantino 1-1 Ceara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Bragantino at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this RB Bragantino vs Ceara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Ceara travel to Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid to take on RB Bragantino. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 August 2022, 22:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, RB Bragantino stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for RB Bragantino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, RB Bragantino have posted 5W 2D 3L at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Ceara have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ceara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ceara's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: RB Bragantino 1.30 PPG, Ceara 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for RB Bragantino, 0 for Ceara and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2022, ended 1–0 with RB Bragantino winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
RB Bragantino in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Ceara in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 53% versus Ceara 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Bragantino 50% | Ceara 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.20 xG and Ceara 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 1.056 / defence 0.940 | Ceara attack 0.970 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 0.920. Data: 60 RB Bragantino games / 60 Ceara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 44% | Draw 30% | Ceara 26%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Ceara 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, RB Bragantino are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: RB Bragantino 40% | Ceara 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Ceara | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 44% | Draw 30% | Ceara 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG RB Bragantino 1.20 / Ceara 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 1.056 / def 0.940 | Ceara attack 0.970 / def 0.842 | league avg home 1.344 / away 0.920 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Ceara xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Ceara kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Ceara kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Ceara?
RB Bragantino 1 - 1 Ceara.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Ceara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Ceara part of?
RB Bragantino vs Ceara is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Ceara?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 44% chance of winning, Ceara a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Ceara?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both RB Bragantino and Ceara will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Ceara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Ceara?
Record (3 meetings): RB Bragantino 1W | Draws 2 | Ceara 0W.
What form are RB Bragantino and Ceara in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Ceara (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from RB Bragantino's attack rating (1.06) and Ceara's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ceara's attack versus RB Bragantino's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
44%
2.26
30%
3.35
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.03
0.84
Ceara xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
19%
5.22
8%
12.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 11.0 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.1 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Ceara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Ceara expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 0.84 for Ceara, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Ceara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
RB Bragantino come into this having played 60 games, going 22W 20D 18L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L. The sample for RB Bragantino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ceara sit at 1.25 PPG from 60 outings (16W 27D 17L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Ceara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: RB Bragantino on 1.43 PPG, Ceara on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
RB Bragantino's home form reads 13W 11D 6L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Ceara have taken 0.90 points per game from 30 outings (4W 15D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Bragantino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Ceara are on 1.02 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Ceara in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Blended
Ceara
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Bragantino and Ceara in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 22W 20D 18L in their last 60 games (1.43 PPG), while Ceara have gone 16W 27D 17L in their last 60 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Ceara away?
RB Bragantino's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.67 PPG; Ceara away: 0.90 PPG.
Have RB Bragantino or Ceara been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Bragantino have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Ceara in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 16 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
RB Bragantino's record when hosting Ceara specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
RB Bragantino
4
Draws
1
Ceara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Ceara?
From 6 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 1, Ceara have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Ceara last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2025, when Ceara 1-0 RB Bragantino.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ceara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Bragantino 50%, Ceara 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (RB Bragantino) and 33% (Ceara).
On the defensive side: RB Bragantino keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Ceara in 33%; Ceara in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Ceara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Bragantino play Ceara?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of RB Bragantino's recent matches and 50% of Ceara's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RB Bragantino vs Ceara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of RB Bragantino's recent games and 33% of Ceara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RB Bragantino and Ceara tend to score early?
RB Bragantino have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Ceara in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RB Bragantino and Ceara share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, Regular Season - 23, as RB Bragantino and Ceara drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.20 xG and Ceara 0.84 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 1.06 / defence 0.94 against Ceara attack 0.97 / defence 0.84, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 44% | Draw 30% | Ceara 26%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 50%, Ceara 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Ceara's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RB Bragantino 1.43 PPG, Ceara 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.