RB Bragantino vs Bahia – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates RB Bragantino at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this RB Bragantino vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
RB Bragantino and Bahia meet at in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
RB Bragantino's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for RB Bragantino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at , RB Bragantino have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bahia have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D D D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Bahia have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for RB Bragantino against 1.70 for Bahia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 9 meetings, Bahia have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to RB Bragantino's 2, with 2 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2026, ended 0–2 with Bahia winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bahia have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
RB Bragantino — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Bahia — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 52% versus Bahia 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Bragantino 50% | Bahia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.23 xG and Bahia 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 0.885 / defence 0.879 | Bahia attack 1.111 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.169. Data: 62 RB Bragantino games / 63 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 36% | Draw 33% | Bahia 31%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Bahia 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, RB Bragantino are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: RB Bragantino 40% | Bahia 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Sep 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 36% | Draw 33% | Bahia 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 51% | xG RB Bragantino 1.23 / Bahia 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 0.885 / def 0.879 | Bahia attack 1.111 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Bahia xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Bahia kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Bahia is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Saturday 5 September 2026.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Bahia part of?
RB Bragantino vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 36% chance of winning, Bahia a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both RB Bragantino and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Bahia?
Record (9 meetings): RB Bragantino 2W | Draws 2 | Bahia 5W.
What form are RB Bragantino and Bahia in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Bahia (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from RB Bragantino's attack rating (0.89) and Bahia's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bahia's attack (1.11x) against RB Bragantino's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 62/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
36%
2.80
33%
3.03
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.38
1.14
Bahia xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
11%
8.76
9%
11.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.6 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.1 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 1.14 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
RB Bragantino come into this having played 62 games, going 24W 11D 27L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-L. The sample for RB Bragantino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bahia sit at 1.60 PPG from 62 outings (27W 18D 17L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for RB Bragantino against 1.60 for Bahia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
RB Bragantino's home form reads 15W 6D 10L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Bahia have taken 1.10 points per game from 31 outings (8W 10D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.60 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bahia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Bragantino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.39 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Blended
Bahia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Bragantino and Bahia in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 24W 11D 27L in their last 62 games (1.34 PPG), while Bahia have gone 27W 18D 17L in their last 62 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Bahia away?
RB Bragantino's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.65 PPG; Bahia away: 1.10 PPG.
Have RB Bragantino or Bahia been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Bragantino have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Bahia in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Bahia have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bahia won 4-0 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RB Bragantino have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bahia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
RB Bragantino
2
Draws
5
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Bahia?
From 9 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 2, Bahia have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Bahia 2-0 RB Bragantino.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Bahia?
Bahia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Bragantino 45%, Bahia 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (RB Bragantino) and 52% (Bahia).
On the defensive side: RB Bragantino keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Bahia in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Bragantino play Bahia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of RB Bragantino's recent matches and 55% of Bahia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RB Bragantino vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of RB Bragantino's recent games and 52% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RB Bragantino and Bahia tend to score early?
RB Bragantino have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Bahia in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.