Palmeiras 1-0 Vasco DA Gama – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vasco DA Gama make the trip to Allianz Parque to face Palmeiras in Serie A, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 27 August 2023 at 22:30 UTC.
Current Form
Palmeiras's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Allianz Parque, Palmeiras have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Palmeiras are significantly better at Allianz Parque than their overall form suggests.
Vasco DA Gama (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Vasco DA Gama, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasco DA Gama's away record: 1W 3D 5L from 9 road trips in Serie A this season (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Palmeiras. A 0.50 PPG lead over Vasco DA Gama (1.50 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Palmeiras register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Vasco DA Gama in 78%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Palmeiras lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Palmeiras half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Vasco DA Gama half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 58% versus Vasco DA Gama 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Palmeiras 47% | Vasco DA Gama 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.99 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.161 / defence 0.902 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.949 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 0.936. Vasco DA Gama bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing Palmeiras's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Palmeiras games / 19 Vasco DA Gama games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 64% | Draw 22% | Vasco DA Gama 13%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.56 | Draw 4.55 | Vasco DA Gama 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Palmeiras (64%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palmeiras at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Palmeiras 80% | Vasco DA Gama 78% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Aug 2023, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 64% | Draw 22% | Vasco DA Gama 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 49% | xG Palmeiras 1.99 / Vasco DA Gama 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.161 / def 0.902 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.949 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.358 / away 0.936 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Vasco DA Gama xG
49%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 27 August 2023 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama?
Palmeiras 1 - 0 Vasco DA Gama.
Where is Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama part of?
Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 64% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 13% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama?
Record (1 meetings): Palmeiras 0W | Draws 1 | Vasco DA Gama 0W.
What form are Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Palmeiras's attack rating (1.16) and Vasco DA Gama's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.99 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Vasco DA Gama's attack (0.95x) against Palmeiras's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 58/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
64%
1.55
22%
4.45
13%
7.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.79
0.80
Vasco DA Gama xG
1.55
64%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
7.59
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
14%
7.34
Win to Nil
29%
3.46
2%
55.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 9.8 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.80 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 19 outings, Palmeiras have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 9W 7D 3L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasco DA Gama's form line: 4W 4D 11L from 19 games, 0.84 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-W. The sample for Vasco DA Gama is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Palmeiras are the form team by 0.95 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vasco DA Gama.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Palmeiras have posted 2.12 PPG from 8 outings (5W 2D 1L).
On the road, Vasco DA Gama have gone 0W 3D 5L from 8 away games — 0.38 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.84 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Vasco DA Gama's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Palmeiras are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Vasco DA Gama are on 0.79 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Blended
Vasco DA Gama
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 9W 7D 3L in their last 19 games (1.79 PPG), while Vasco DA Gama have gone 4W 4D 11L in their last 19 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Vasco DA Gama away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.12 PPG; Vasco DA Gama away: 0.38 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Vasco DA Gama been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Vasco DA Gama in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palmeiras won 3-0 on 1 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palmeiras have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Vasco DA Gama — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Palmeiras
1
Draws
1
Vasco DA Gama
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama?
From 7 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 5, Vasco DA Gama have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2026, when Vasco DA Gama 2-1 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Palmeiras, 75% for Vasco DA Gama — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Palmeiras) and 38% (Vasco DA Gama).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Vasco DA Gama away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Vasco DA Gama?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Palmeiras's games and 75% of Vasco DA Gama's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Palmeiras's recent games and 38% of Vasco DA Gama's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Vasco DA Gama in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Palmeiras edge out Vasco DA Gama 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Vasco DA Gama 1-0 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.99 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.80 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Palmeiras fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Vasco DA Gama landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.16 / defence 0.90 against Vasco DA Gama attack 0.95 / defence 1.26, drawn from 58/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 64% | Draw 22% | Vasco DA Gama 13%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 47%, Vasco DA Gama 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (19 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (19 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 0.84. That form edge translated into the three points. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.