Palmeiras 1-0 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Palmeiras (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Palmeiras face Gremio.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 33 as Palmeiras welcome Gremio to Allianz Parque. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 November 2024 at 00:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Palmeiras have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Palmeiras at Allianz Parque this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Parque.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gremio stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Gremio away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Palmeiras have won 3, Gremio 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Jul 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Palmeiras trading profile (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Gremio trading profile (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 40% versus Gremio 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 44% | Gremio 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.85 xG and Gremio 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.380 / defence 0.927 | Gremio attack 1.057 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.010. Palmeiras carry an above-average attack strength of 1.380 — their λ of 1.85 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 70 Palmeiras games / 70 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 58% | Draw 23% | Gremio 20%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Gremio 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Palmeiras (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palmeiras at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Palmeiras 40% | Gremio 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 58% | Draw 23% | Gremio 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG Palmeiras 1.85 / Gremio 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.380 / def 0.927 | Gremio attack 1.057 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (58%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Gremio xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Gremio kick off?
Palmeiras vs Gremio kicked off at 00:30 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Gremio?
Palmeiras 1 - 0 Gremio.
Where is Palmeiras vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Gremio part of?
Palmeiras vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 58% chance of winning, Gremio a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Palmeiras and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Gremio?
Record (5 meetings): Palmeiras 3W | Draws 1 | Gremio 1W.
What form are Palmeiras and Gremio in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Gremio (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Palmeiras vs Gremio?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Palmeiras's attack at 1.38x the league average against Gremio's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gremio's attack versus Palmeiras's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
58%
1.74
23%
4.43
20%
5.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.84
0.99
Gremio xG
1.74
58%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
5.02
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
16%
6.35
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
3%
31.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 10.7 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.99 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Gremio?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Palmeiras's recent record stands at 38W 17D 15L from 70 games, a 1.87 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-L in the last five.
Gremio, meanwhile, have gone 32W 11D 27L across 70 games — 1.53 PPG, with W-L-L-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Palmeiras on 1.87 PPG, Gremio on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Palmeiras have managed 25W 4D 6L from 35 games — 2.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gremio's away record stands at 10W 8D 17L across 35 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.53 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gremio's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Palmeiras are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 1.44 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Current Season
Gremio
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Gremio in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 38W 17D 15L in their last 70 games (1.87 PPG), while Gremio have gone 32W 11D 27L in their last 70 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Gremio away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.26 PPG; Gremio away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Gremio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Gremio in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Palmeiras and Gremio runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 May 2023, when Palmeiras won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palmeiras's record when hosting Gremio specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Palmeiras
1
Draws
2
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Gremio?
From 9 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 6, Gremio have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Palmeiras 2-1 Gremio.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Gremio?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 40%, Gremio 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Palmeiras) and 63% (Gremio). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Gremio in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Gremio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 60% of Gremio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palmeiras vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 49% of Palmeiras's matches and 63% of Gremio's.
Do Palmeiras and Gremio tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Gremio in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Palmeiras edge out Gremio 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Gremio 1-0 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.85 xG and Gremio 0.99 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Palmeiras fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Gremio landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.38 / defence 0.93 against Gremio attack 1.06 / defence 0.98, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 58% | Draw 23% | Gremio 20%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 44%, Gremio 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gremio's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palmeiras 1.87 PPG, Gremio 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palmeiras win broke the near-deadlock. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward. Gremio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.