Palmeiras 4-0 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palmeiras vs Botafogo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 10 as Palmeiras welcome Botafogo to Allianz Parque. Kick-off is set for Thursday 9 June 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Palmeiras — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Palmeiras at Allianz Parque this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.25 xG and Botafogo 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.092 / defence 0.870 | Botafogo attack 0.953 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.002. Data: 47 Palmeiras games / 9 Botafogo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 46% | Draw 29% | Botafogo 25%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Botafogo 4.00. Palmeiras hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palmeiras at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Thursday 9 Jun 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 46% | Draw 29% | Botafogo 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Palmeiras 1.25 / Botafogo 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.092 / def 0.870 | Botafogo attack 0.953 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.260 / away 1.002 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Botafogo xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Botafogo kick off?
Palmeiras vs Botafogo kicked off at 23:00 on Thursday 9 June 2022 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Botafogo?
Palmeiras 4 - 0 Botafogo.
Where is Palmeiras vs Botafogo being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Botafogo part of?
Palmeiras vs Botafogo is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 46% chance of winning, Botafogo a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Palmeiras and Botafogo will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Botafogo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Palmeiras and Botafogo in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Palmeiras home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Palmeiras's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Botafogo's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Botafogo's attack versus Palmeiras's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
46%
2.17
29%
3.40
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.08
0.83
Botafogo xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
20%
4.99
7%
14.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 10.4 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.0 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.83 for Botafogo, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Botafogo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Pre-Season
Botafogo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Palmeiras have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Jun 2022, when Palmeiras won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palmeiras's record when hosting Botafogo specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Palmeiras
1
Draws
3
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Botafogo?
From 9 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 5, Botafogo have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Botafogo last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Palmeiras 2-1 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Botafogo?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Palmeiras run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Botafogo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Botafogo 4-0 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.25 xG and Botafogo 0.83 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Palmeiras beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Botafogo landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.09 / defence 0.87 against Botafogo attack 0.95 / defence 0.91, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 46% | Draw 29% | Botafogo 25%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.