Palmeiras 0-2 Atletico Paranaense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Atletico Paranaense travel to Allianz Parque to take on Palmeiras. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 July 2022, 01:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Palmeiras — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palmeiras's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Allianz Parque this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Parque. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.80 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Allianz Parque this season.
Across all Serie A games this season, Atletico Paranaense have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Paranaense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Atletico Paranaense have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Palmeiras 2.40 PPG, Atletico Paranaense 2.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Palmeiras, 0 for Atletico Paranaense and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Palmeiras in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Atletico Paranaense in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 50% versus Atletico Paranaense 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 54% | Atletico Paranaense 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.64 xG and Atletico Paranaense 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.412 / defence 0.919 | Atletico Paranaense attack 0.966 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.311 / away 0.975. Palmeiras carry an above-average attack strength of 1.412 — their λ of 1.64 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 52 Palmeiras games / 52 Atletico Paranaense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 54% | Draw 27% | Atletico Paranaense 19%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Atletico Paranaense 5.26. Palmeiras hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Palmeiras 40% | Atletico Paranaense 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Jul 2022, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 54% | Draw 27% | Atletico Paranaense 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Palmeiras 1.64 / Atletico Paranaense 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.412 / def 0.919 | Atletico Paranaense attack 0.966 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.311 / away 0.975 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Atletico Paranaense xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense kick off?
Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 3 July 2022 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense?
Palmeiras 0 - 2 Atletico Paranaense.
Where is Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense part of?
Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 54% chance of winning, Atletico Paranaense a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Palmeiras and Atletico Paranaense will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Atletico Paranaense?
Record (2 meetings): Palmeiras 1W | Draws 1 | Atletico Paranaense 0W.
What form are Palmeiras and Atletico Paranaense in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Palmeiras's attack rating (1.41) and Atletico Paranaense's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico Paranaense's attack versus Palmeiras's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
54%
1.84
27%
3.73
19%
5.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.50
0.87
Atletico Paranaense xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
5.34
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
23%
4.37
4%
27.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 11.6 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Atletico Paranaense expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.87 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 52 outings, Palmeiras have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 28W 11D 13L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico Paranaense's form line: 20W 11D 21L from 52 games, 1.37 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W. The sample for Atletico Paranaense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Palmeiras are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Atletico Paranaense.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Palmeiras have posted 1.92 PPG from 26 outings (15W 5D 6L).
On the road, Atletico Paranaense have gone 8W 4D 14L from 26 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Palmeiras are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Atletico Paranaense are on 1.12 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Blended
Atletico Paranaense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Atletico Paranaense in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 28W 11D 13L in their last 52 games (1.83 PPG), while Atletico Paranaense have gone 20W 11D 21L in their last 52 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Atletico Paranaense away?
Palmeiras's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 1.92 PPG; Atletico Paranaense away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Atletico Paranaense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Atletico Paranaense in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Palmeiras and Atletico Paranaense runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Palmeiras have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Palmeiras's record when hosting Atletico Paranaense specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Palmeiras
2
Draws
2
Atletico Paranaense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Atletico Paranaense?
From 9 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 5, Atletico Paranaense have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Atletico Paranaense last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Palmeiras 1-0 Atletico Paranaense.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Atletico Paranaense?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Atletico Paranaense see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 58%, Atletico Paranaense 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Palmeiras) and 42% (Atletico Paranaense).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Atletico Paranaense in 31%; Atletico Paranaense in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Atletico Paranaense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Atletico Paranaense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 35% of Atletico Paranaense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Palmeiras's recent games and 42% of Atletico Paranaense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Atletico Paranaense tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Atletico Paranaense in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atletico Paranaense cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Palmeiras.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Paranaense beat Palmeiras 0-2 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.64 xG and Atletico Paranaense 0.87 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Palmeiras fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Atletico Paranaense outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.41 / defence 0.92 against Atletico Paranaense attack 0.97 / defence 0.88, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 54% | Draw 27% | Atletico Paranaense 19%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Atletico Paranaense win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 54%, Atletico Paranaense 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.37. Form was overturned, with Atletico Paranaense winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Atletico Paranaense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.