Mirassol 2-2 Vitoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mirassol at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mirassol vs Vitoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vitoria make the trip to Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia to face Mirassol in Serie A, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Mirassol (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Mirassol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mirassol have posted 4W 2D 4L at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Vitoria's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Vitoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vitoria away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Mirassol, 1.00 for Vitoria — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Mirassol 0W, Vitoria 2W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Vitoria winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Mirassol goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Vitoria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mirassol 62% versus Vitoria 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mirassol 50% | Vitoria 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 1.64 xG and Vitoria 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 0.989 / defence 1.183 | Vitoria attack 0.707 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.178. Data: 64 Mirassol games / 64 Vitoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mirassol 51% | Draw 29% | Vitoria 21%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Vitoria 4.76. Mirassol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mirassol as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mirassol if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mirassol 70% | Vitoria 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs Vitoria | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Sep 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 51% | Draw 29% | Vitoria 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Mirassol 1.64 / Vitoria 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 0.989 / def 1.183 | Vitoria attack 0.707 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Mirassol (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Vitoria xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mirassol vs Vitoria kick off?
Mirassol vs Vitoria kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 13 September 2026 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What was the final score in Mirassol vs Vitoria?
Mirassol 2 - 2 Vitoria.
Where is Mirassol vs Vitoria being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What competition is Mirassol vs Vitoria part of?
Mirassol vs Vitoria is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs Vitoria?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 51% chance of winning, Vitoria a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Mirassol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Vitoria?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Mirassol and Vitoria will score (BTTS).
Will Mirassol vs Vitoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Vitoria?
Record (3 meetings): Mirassol 0W | Draws 1 | Vitoria 2W.
What form are Mirassol and Vitoria in?
Mirassol (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Vitoria (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mirassol's attack at 0.99x the league average against Vitoria's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vitoria's attack (0.71x) against Mirassol's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mirassol Win
51%
1.98
29%
3.47
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Mirassol xG
Total xG
2.63
0.99
Vitoria xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
19%
5.30
4%
25.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.7 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mirassol vs Vitoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Mirassol and Vitoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Mirassol and 0.99 for Vitoria, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Mirassol vs Vitoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mirassol's recent record stands at 25W 20D 19L from 64 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Mirassol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vitoria, meanwhile, have gone 20W 17D 27L across 64 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Vitoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Mirassol against 1.20 for Vitoria. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Mirassol have managed 17W 11D 4L from 32 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.48 PPG overall — Mirassol are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Vitoria's away record stands at 2W 10D 20L across 32 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Vitoria's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mirassol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mirassol are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Vitoria are on 0.94 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mirassol have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mirassol
Blended
Vitoria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mirassol and Vitoria in coming into this match?
Mirassol have gone 25W 20D 19L in their last 64 games (1.48 PPG), while Vitoria have gone 20W 17D 27L in their last 64 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mirassol at home or Vitoria away?
Mirassol's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mirassol at home: 1.94 PPG; Vitoria away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Mirassol or Vitoria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mirassol have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Vitoria in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mirassol have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Vitoria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Mirassol
2
Draws
2
Vitoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Vitoria?
From 4 meetings on record, Mirassol have won 0, Vitoria have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mirassol and Vitoria last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Mirassol 2-2 Vitoria.
Who has won more matches between Mirassol and Vitoria?
Vitoria have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Vitoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mirassol 72%, Vitoria 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Mirassol) and 44% (Vitoria).
On the defensive side: Vitoria in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mirassol home games / Vitoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mirassol play Vitoria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Mirassol's games and 47% of Vitoria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mirassol vs Vitoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Mirassol's recent games and 44% of Vitoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mirassol and Vitoria tend to score early?
Mirassol have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Vitoria in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mirassol and Vitoria share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mirassol and Vitoria finished level at 2-2 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.64 xG and Vitoria 0.99 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Vitoria outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 0.99 / defence 1.18 against Vitoria attack 0.71 / defence 1.17, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mirassol 51% | Draw 29% | Vitoria 21%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mirassol 50%, Vitoria 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mirassol's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Vitoria's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mirassol 1.48 PPG, Vitoria 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mirassol (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vitoria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.