Juventude 2-1 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juventude at 40%, yet in-form Fluminense provide a compelling counter-argument — this Juventude vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Juventude and Fluminense meet at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 September 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Juventude (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Juventude, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juventude at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Juventude are significantly better at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi than their overall form suggests.
Fluminense's overall Serie A record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fluminense away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Fluminense are 1.10 PPG clear of Juventude in recent Serie A fixtures (2.00 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Juventude lead 2W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Jun 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Juventude — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Fluminense — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventude 68% versus Fluminense 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Juventude 48% | Fluminense 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 1.14 xG and Fluminense 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 1.013 / defence 1.128 | Fluminense attack 0.792 / defence 0.860. League average goals — home 1.311 / away 1.042. Data: 25 Juventude games / 62 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 40% | Draw 30% | Fluminense 29%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Fluminense 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juventude are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fluminense (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventude if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Juventude 60% | Fluminense 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 40% | Draw 30% | Fluminense 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Juventude 1.14 / Fluminense 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 1.013 / def 1.128 | Fluminense attack 0.792 / def 0.860 | league avg home 1.311 / away 1.042 • Poisson stance: Juventude (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Fluminense xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Fluminense kick off?
Juventude vs Fluminense kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Fluminense?
Juventude 2 - 1 Fluminense.
Where is Juventude vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Fluminense part of?
Juventude vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 40% chance of winning, Fluminense a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Juventude the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Juventude and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Fluminense?
Record (5 meetings): Juventude 2W | Draws 2 | Fluminense 1W.
What form are Juventude and Fluminense in?
Juventude (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Fluminense (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Juventude's attack rating (1.01) and Fluminense's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fluminense's attack (0.79x) against Juventude's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 25/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventude Win
40%
2.49
30%
3.28
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Juventude xG
Total xG
2.07
0.93
Fluminense xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
16%
6.31
9%
10.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 11.7 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Juventude and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Juventude and 0.93 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 25 outings, Juventude have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 7W 8D 10L record — L-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Juventude is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fluminense's form line: 7W 6D 12L from 25 games, 1.08 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Juventude against 1.08 for Fluminense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Juventude have posted 1.83 PPG from 12 outings (6W 4D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Juventude are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Fluminense have gone 3W 1D 8L from 12 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventude come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Juventude are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 0.88 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Juventude have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Blended
Fluminense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 7W 8D 10L in their last 25 games (1.16 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 7W 6D 12L in their last 25 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or Fluminense away?
Juventude's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 1.83 PPG; Fluminense away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 17 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fluminense won 4-0 on 28 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juventude have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fluminense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Juventude
3
Draws
2
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Fluminense?
From 8 meetings on record, Juventude have won 3, Fluminense have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2025, when Fluminense 1-0 Juventude.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Fluminense?
Juventude have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventude 58%, Fluminense 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 42% for Juventude and 25% for Fluminense.
On the defensive side: Juventude keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Fluminense in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Juventude's recent matches and 25% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventude vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Juventude's recent games and 25% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventude and Fluminense tend to score early?
Juventude have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Fluminense in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Juventude edge out Fluminense 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventude beat Fluminense 2-1 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.14 xG and Fluminense 0.93 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Juventude beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 1.01 / defence 1.13 against Fluminense attack 0.79 / defence 0.86, drawn from 25/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 40% | Draw 30% | Fluminense 29%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 48%, Fluminense 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Fluminense's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juventude 1.16 PPG, Fluminense 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juventude win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.