Juventude 1-2 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cuiaba at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juventude vs Cuiaba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Cuiaba travel to Estádio Alfredo Jaconi to take on Juventude. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 September 2021, 21:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Juventude — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Juventude, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juventude's home record at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie A games this season, Cuiaba have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cuiaba's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 1L across 9 road games this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 9 games (56%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Cuiaba are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Juventude, 0 for Cuiaba and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Juventude trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Cuiaba trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 20% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventude 47% versus Cuiaba 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Juventude 26% | Cuiaba 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 0.71 xG and Cuiaba 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.883 / defence 1.141 | Cuiaba attack 0.797 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 0.881 / away 1.063. Data: 19 Juventude games / 19 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 24% | Draw 37% | Cuiaba 39%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 4.17 | Draw 2.70 | Cuiaba 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.67. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.67 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Juventude's lower xG of 0.71 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cuiaba as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cuiaba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 24% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Juventude 40% | Cuiaba 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 24% | Draw 37% | Cuiaba 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 33% | xG Juventude 0.71 / Cuiaba 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 0.883 / def 1.141 | Cuiaba attack 0.797 / def 0.909 | league avg home 0.881 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Cuiaba (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Cuiaba xG
33%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Cuiaba kick off?
Juventude vs Cuiaba kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Cuiaba?
Juventude 1 - 2 Cuiaba.
Where is Juventude vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Cuiaba part of?
Juventude vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 24% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 39% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Cuiaba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Juventude and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Cuiaba?
Record (1 meetings): Juventude 0W | Draws 1 | Cuiaba 0W.
What form are Juventude and Cuiaba in?
Juventude (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Cuiaba (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Juventude's attack at 0.88x the league average against Cuiaba's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 0.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cuiaba's attack versus Juventude's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (16.5%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cuiaba Win
24%
4.12
37%
2.71
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.1%
Away win
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Juventude xG
Total xG
1.67
0.97
Cuiaba xG
4.12
24%
Home win
2.71
37%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.04
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
9%
10.83
19%
5.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.7 | 18.1 | 8.8 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.8 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.4%.
How many goals are Juventude and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Juventude and 0.97 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 1.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 19 outings, Juventude have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 5W 8D 6L record — W-D-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Juventude is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cuiaba's form line: 5W 9D 5L from 19 games, 1.26 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juventude on 1.21 PPG, Cuiaba on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Juventude have posted 1.67 PPG from 9 outings (4W 3D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Juventude are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cuiaba have gone 2W 6D 1L from 9 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Juventude are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Blended
Cuiaba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 5W 8D 6L in their last 19 games (1.21 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 5W 9D 5L in their last 19 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or Cuiaba away?
Juventude's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 1.67 PPG; Cuiaba away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Juventude or Cuiaba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventude have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Cuiaba in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Juventude and Cuiaba runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Juventude's record when hosting Cuiaba specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Juventude
3
Draws
3
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Cuiaba?
From 6 meetings on record, Juventude have won 0, Cuiaba have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2024, when Juventude 1-1 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Cuiaba?
Cuiaba have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Juventude see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Cuiaba see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventude 44%, Cuiaba 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for Juventude and 22% for Cuiaba.
On the defensive side: Juventude keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Cuiaba in 56%; Cuiaba in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Juventude's recent matches and 33% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventude vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Juventude's recent games and 22% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Cuiaba edge out Juventude 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cuiaba beat Juventude 1-2 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 0.71 xG and Cuiaba 0.97 xG, a combined 1.67. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cuiaba outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.88 / defence 1.14 against Cuiaba attack 0.80 / defence 0.91, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 24% | Draw 37% | Cuiaba 39%, with Cuiaba to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 26%, Cuiaba 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Cuiaba's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juventude 1.21 PPG, Cuiaba 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cuiaba win broke the near-deadlock. Juventude (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cuiaba (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.