Internacional 1-2 Vasco DA Gama – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Internacional at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Internacional vs Vasco DA Gama fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio José Pinheiro Borda plays host to Internacional versus Vasco DA Gama in Serie A, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 7 July 2024 at 22:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Internacional have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Internacional, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Internacional's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Vasco DA Gama (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vasco DA Gama, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Vasco DA Gama have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Internacional against 1.10 for Vasco DA Gama. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Internacional 2W, Vasco DA Gama 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2023, ended 2–1 with Internacional winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Internacional half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Vasco DA Gama half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Internacional 50% versus Vasco DA Gama 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Internacional 40% | Vasco DA Gama 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Internacional 1.30 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Internacional attack 0.834 / defence 0.891 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.786 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.058. Data: 50 Internacional games / 52 Vasco DA Gama games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Internacional 48% | Draw 33% | Vasco DA Gama 19%. Fair-value odds: Internacional 2.08 | Draw 3.03 | Vasco DA Gama 5.26. Internacional hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Internacional are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Internacional if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Internacional 60% | Vasco DA Gama 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Internacional vs Vasco DA Gama | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estádio José Pinheiro Borda • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Jul 2024, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Internacional 48% | Draw 33% | Vasco DA Gama 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Internacional 1.30 / Vasco DA Gama 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Internacional attack 0.834 / def 0.891 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.786 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.058 • Poisson stance: Internacional (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Internacional xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Vasco DA Gama xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Internacional vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
Internacional vs Vasco DA Gama kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 7 July 2024 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What was the final score in Internacional vs Vasco DA Gama?
Internacional 1 - 2 Vasco DA Gama.
Where is Internacional vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What competition is Internacional vs Vasco DA Gama part of?
Internacional vs Vasco DA Gama is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Internacional vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our statistical model gives Internacional a 48% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 19% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Internacional the favourite.
Will both teams score in Internacional vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Internacional and Vasco DA Gama will score (BTTS).
Will Internacional vs Vasco DA Gama have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Vasco DA Gama?
Record (2 meetings): Internacional 2W | Draws 0 | Vasco DA Gama 0W.
What form are Internacional and Vasco DA Gama in?
Internacional (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Internacional's attack at 0.83x the league average against Vasco DA Gama's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vasco DA Gama's attack (0.79x) against Internacional's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 50/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Internacional Win
48%
2.09
33%
3.04
19%
5.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Internacional xG
Total xG
2.04
0.74
Vasco DA Gama xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
5.18
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
23%
4.38
5%
18.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 9.7 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 12.5 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Internacional vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Internacional and Vasco DA Gama expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Internacional and 0.74 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Internacional vs Vasco DA Gama?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Internacional's recent record stands at 20W 14D 16L from 50 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Internacional is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasco DA Gama, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 25L across 50 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Vasco DA Gama is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Internacional against 1.10 for Vasco DA Gama. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Internacional have managed 11W 7D 6L from 24 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vasco DA Gama's away record stands at 2W 7D 15L across 24 trips, a 0.54 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Vasco DA Gama's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Internacional come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Internacional are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Vasco DA Gama are on 1.04 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Internacional
Blended
Vasco DA Gama
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Internacional and Vasco DA Gama in coming into this match?
Internacional have gone 20W 14D 16L in their last 50 games (1.48 PPG), while Vasco DA Gama have gone 15W 10D 25L in their last 50 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Internacional at home or Vasco DA Gama away?
Internacional's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Internacional at home: 1.67 PPG; Vasco DA Gama away: 0.54 PPG.
Have Internacional or Vasco DA Gama been keeping clean sheets recently?
Internacional have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Vasco DA Gama in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vasco DA Gama won 5-1 on 28 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Internacional have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Vasco DA Gama — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Internacional
1
Draws
2
Vasco DA Gama
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Vasco DA Gama?
From 7 meetings on record, Internacional have won 4, Vasco DA Gama have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Internacional and Vasco DA Gama last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Internacional 4-1 Vasco DA Gama.
Who has won more matches between Internacional and Vasco DA Gama?
Internacional have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Internacional see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Vasco DA Gama see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Internacional 54%, Vasco DA Gama 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Internacional) and 33% (Vasco DA Gama).
On the defensive side: Internacional keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Internacional have failed to score in 29% of games; Vasco DA Gama in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Internacional home games / Vasco DA Gama away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Internacional play Vasco DA Gama?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Internacional's recent matches and 54% of Vasco DA Gama's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Internacional vs Vasco DA Gama usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Internacional's recent games and 33% of Vasco DA Gama's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Vasco DA Gama defy the odds to beat Internacional 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasco DA Gama beat Internacional 1-2 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 1.30 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.74 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Vasco DA Gama outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 0.83 / defence 0.89 against Vasco DA Gama attack 0.79 / defence 1.12, drawn from 50/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Internacional 48% | Draw 33% | Vasco DA Gama 19%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Vasco DA Gama win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Internacional 40%, Vasco DA Gama 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Internacional's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Internacional 1.48 PPG, Vasco DA Gama 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasco DA Gama win broke the near-deadlock. Internacional (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.