Internacional 1-3 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Palmeiras (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Internacional face Palmeiras.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Palmeiras make the trip to Estádio Beira-Rio to face Internacional in Serie A, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Friday 13 February 2026 at 00:30 UTC.
Form
Internacional (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Internacional at Estádio Beira-Rio this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Internacional are significantly better at Estádio Beira-Rio than their overall form suggests.
Palmeiras's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Palmeiras's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Palmeiras are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Internacional have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Palmeiras in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Internacional 2W, Palmeiras 4W, 2D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 1–4 with Palmeiras winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Internacional — key trading statistics (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Palmeiras — key trading statistics (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Internacional 58% versus Palmeiras 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Internacional 46% | Palmeiras 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Internacional 1.26 xG and Palmeiras 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Internacional attack 0.847 / defence 0.993 | Palmeiras attack 1.235 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.140. Palmeiras have an above-average attack strength of 1.235 — the away xG of 1.40 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Internacional games / 40 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Internacional 34% | Draw 26% | Palmeiras 40%. Fair-value odds: Internacional 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Palmeiras 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palmeiras if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Internacional 70% | Palmeiras 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Internacional vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estádio Beira-Rio • Kick-off: Friday 13 Feb 2026, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Internacional 34% | Draw 26% | Palmeiras 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Internacional 1.26 / Palmeiras 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Internacional attack 0.847 / def 0.993 | Palmeiras attack 1.235 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Internacional xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Palmeiras xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Internacional vs Palmeiras kick off?
Internacional vs Palmeiras kicked off at 00:30 on Friday 13 February 2026 at Estádio Beira-Rio.
What was the final score in Internacional vs Palmeiras?
Internacional 1 - 3 Palmeiras.
Where is Internacional vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Beira-Rio.
What competition is Internacional vs Palmeiras part of?
Internacional vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Internacional vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Internacional a 34% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Internacional vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Internacional and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Internacional vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Palmeiras?
Record (8 meetings): Internacional 2W | Draws 2 | Palmeiras 4W.
What form are Internacional and Palmeiras in?
Internacional (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Palmeiras (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Internacional's attack at 0.85x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Palmeiras's attack (1.24x) against Internacional's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
34%
2.95
26%
3.85
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Internacional xG
Total xG
2.66
1.40
Palmeiras xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
8%
11.93
11%
8.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.3 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Internacional vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Internacional and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Internacional and 1.40 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Internacional vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 76 outings, Internacional have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 29W 22D 25L record — W-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Palmeiras's form line: 45W 14D 17L from 76 games, 1.96 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Palmeiras are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Internacional.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Internacional have posted 1.79 PPG from 38 outings (19W 11D 8L).
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 21W 7D 10L from 38 away games — 1.84 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Internacional are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.66 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Internacional
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Internacional and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Internacional have gone 29W 22D 25L in their last 76 games (1.43 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 45W 14D 17L in their last 76 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Internacional at home or Palmeiras away?
Palmeiras's away record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Internacional at home: 1.79 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.84 PPG.
Have Internacional or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Internacional have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Internacional won 3-0 on 13 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Internacional have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Palmeiras — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Internacional
3
Draws
5
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Palmeiras?
From 10 meetings on record, Internacional have won 2, Palmeiras have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Internacional and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Palmeiras 0-0 Internacional.
Who has won more matches between Internacional and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Internacional are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Internacional 58%, Palmeiras 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Internacional) and 50% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Internacional keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Palmeiras in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Internacional home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Internacional play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Internacional's recent matches and 50% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Internacional vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Internacional's recent games and 50% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Internacional and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Internacional have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palmeiras cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Internacional.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Internacional 1-3 at Estádio Beira-Rio, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 1.26 xG and Palmeiras 1.40 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Palmeiras outscored their 1.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 0.85 / defence 0.99 against Palmeiras attack 1.24 / defence 0.93, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Internacional 34% | Draw 26% | Palmeiras 40%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Internacional 46%, Palmeiras 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Internacional's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Palmeiras's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.43. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Internacional (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palmeiras (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.